Oddsmakers in Vegas don't have much faith in the Florida Gators this weekend against Ole Miss. Florida will roll into Oxford as a double-digit underdog one week after faceplanting against Kentucky.
But despite no significant news coming out since the original odds were posted, the spread for the game has been rapidly dropping towards Florida.
Florida is an underdog, but the spread is shrinking
When the spread for this weekend was first posted, it rose as high as 15 points in favor of Ole Miss. Not to get overly dramatic, but that paints a picture of a blowout in Oxford that would be over by the 4th quarter.
But beyond Caleb Banks being listed as "Doubtful" for the game, when he had previously been listed as "Out" since the LSU game, there hadn't been any other news to come out that would cause the line to move significantly one way or the other.
So it's notable that the spread has gone from as high as 15 points to its current mark of 11.5 points.
For a spread to tumble this far usually indicates a large amount of money coming in towards the Gators to cover the spread.
It's notable anytime a spread crosses over the threshold of a possession. Even going from 14.5 to 13.5 points is massive within the betting world. So to cross that threshold and to continue to fall towards the next big threshold (10.5 versus 9.5 points) makes it seem bettors know something the rest of us don't.
On paper, it would seem safe to go with Ole Miss in this game. Florida is coming off its worst loss to Kentucky since 1950, and DJ Lagway was so bad that he was benched in that game.
But Florida pulled off the upset last year to knock Ole Miss out of the playoffs, and there is a theory that the pressure could get to Ole Miss again this year, especially with the backdrop of whether or not Lane Kiffin is going to bolt to Florida after the season.