Billy Napier and the Florida Gators pulled off a four-game win streak to close out 2024 and help quiet some of the talk of him being on the hot seat, but the reality is that he isn't out of the woods just yet. Napier is still just 19-19 during his time as Florida's head coach and has yet to finish a season ranked.
There is optimism in Gainesville, injuries aside, that 2025 could be a great year for the Gators. But Florida also has a wide range of variance to their season, and we are going to look at what each outcome would mean for Napier's future with the Gators.
Billy Napier is safe at 10-2 or better
If Florida goes 10-2, especially with the schedule they have, there is a shot Florida could wind up in Atlanta, depending upon where the two losses come from.
Either way, 10-2 would get Florida in the playoffs, and while it might fall short of a bye, it would almost guarantee hosting a first-round game.
Even if Florida were to lose that game, Napier would be safe. If Florida goes on any type of run in the playoffs, Napier might even get an extension.
9-3
Going back to the strength of schedule, Florida probably makes the playoffs at 9-3. Keep in mind that Alabama was going to make the playoffs last year at 9-3 ahead of 10-2 Miami until Clemson came in and stole their bid by winning the ACC title game.
At 9-3, Napier is safe. Depending on what happens in the playoffs, we could have conversations as to whether he is actually far enough along in year four, but he would not get fired going 9-3.
8-4
This might be the most complicated scenario to evaluate for Florida.
At 8-4, there is almost zero shot the Gators would make the playoffs, and we here at Hail Florida Hail are on record stating that it's playoffs or bust for Napier in year four.
And if you think "8-4 is not too bad," go ask LSU fans how they felt going 8-4 last season.
The problem with 8-4 is that it would include a loss to someone that Florida shouldn't be losing to in year four of the Billy Napier Era.
But, we also think Florida's administration would still keep Napier for year five.
7-5
Now we are in very real danger territory for Napier. The crazy thing about going 7-5 in 2025 is that if the schedule holds, Florida could emerge without a "bad" loss.
But 7-5 would also mean Florida would have minimal "good" wins and would almost guarantee the Gators lost to all the meaningful rivals.
At 7-5, there is a pathway to string it out so that Napier makes it to the end of the season, but the pressure in Gainesville would be at a fever pitch, and it might be enough for Florida to pull the trigger.
6-6 or worse
There is a non-zero chance that Billy Napier doesn't make it to Jacksonville to face Georgia. Hell, there is a non-zero shot that Napier doesn't make it to the Texas game if LSU and Miami go poorly.
And while we believe Florida's roster has too many pieces to it to actually go 6-6 or worse, Vegas odds don't think it's impossible.
There is zero shot Napier survives going 6-6, there just isn't.
And it would put Napier in the running as one of the worst coaches in Florida history if the Gators go 6-6 or worse in 2025.