It really is here. After a long and winding offseason where Gator fans had to familiar themselves with new head coach Jon Sumrall, Florida is going to take the field for real tonight against FAU. Given that it is opening night for both teams, there are a ton of unknowns on both sides, and the end result for tonight could take several different pathways.
But on paper, tonight shouldn’t create too much drama for Sumrall’s debut. The question is how much is Florida actually going to win by?
Florida takes on FAU in Jon Sumrall’s opener
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida -26.5 | 58.5 Points | Florida -5000 |
Like Florida, FAU was 4-8 last year. The Owls' offense was decent enough last year and ranked 49th in points per game, but their defense was atrocious and finished 131st out of 136 FBS teams in scoring defense in 2025.
And as we chronicled earlier in the week, the defense on paper isn’t much better for FAU entering 2026. The Owls are still employing defensive coordinator Brett Dewhurst, and while FAU brought in a number of transfers to shore up their defense, almost none of them in the secondary have had any form of success in college to this point.
If Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is who he has been hyped up to be, the Gators just have too much talent on offense for FAU to be able to match up with. And if Aaron Philo has the grasp of the offense that Faulkner and Sumrall claim he has, all he is going to need to do tonight is find the open man and not try to do anything too crazy.
There will be a bit more tension on the flipside. Florida’s defense is a mystery box, and FAU runs a lightning-quick offense. The thing about FAU is that they are pretty much an all-or-nothing team. They were 22nd last year in total yards per game on offense, but they were just 66th in yards per play and 126th in time of possession.
Translation: Either they are going to score a touchdown in five plays, or they are going three-and-out. There isn’t much in between.
The one area of concern for Florida is going to be at safety, as rumblings started to emerge late in camp that the safety play was sketchy. But if Florida’s front four can generate pressure and Jayden Woods can have a field day, that can help mitigate concerns on the back end.
It wouldn’t shock us if FAU snuck in a touchdown, but unless the secondary for Florida is just a train wreck, they should be able to slow down FAU. And unless Buster Faulkner and Aaron Philo are frauds, the Gators would get points on virtually every drive.
Final Prediction:
- Florida 41
- FAU 10
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