Florida’s Jadan Baugh conundrum quietly asks how far a team should go for a RB

As Florida fans are officially on Jadan Baugh watch to see whether or not the star running back is going to return for the 2026 season, there is a fair question to ask when budgeting a team in the modern NIL era:

Just how much should one spend on a single running back?

Conventional wisdom would say not to overspend on a single running back because the return on investment usually isn’t high.

But if Florida has paid attention to the NFL at all, there is an argument to be made to pay Baugh whatever his asking price may be.

Jadan Baugh is still making up his mind

The reports that came out yesterday are that, according to “agent sources,” Baugh is expected to enter the portal, and that Florida is still working hard to keep Baugh, and it is still a 50-50 situation.

Whichever pathway happens, Baugh is about to get paid north of $1 million for the 2026 season. In the college market, as it is currently believed to be set, that’s a lot for a single player.

Now it is possible that Florida is matching any deal that Texas, Georgia, or Ohio State are throwing at him, and they lose Baugh anyway. Texas has been seen as the primary threat because of the opportunity to follow Jabbar Juluke, his running back coach for the last two years, to Austin.

But let’s just pretend that money is the sole deciding factor. If we are being honest, Florida has had it this way in the NIL Era to seldom sell out for a single player, and it has tended to be skittish when it comes to a bidding war.

If Baugh were just a standard 700-yard running back, and someone wants to pay him north of $1 million, then we would agree that one can’t break the bank for that. But look in the NFL at players like Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Jahmyr Gibbs. These are genuine game breakers who aren’t just replaced by the next man up. Philadelphia won a Super Bowl, and New York got people fired because of Barkley.

Roster building

One of the main counter arguments is “Well, we have 85 guys we have to pay,” we would counter argue with “No, no you don’t.”

Going back to the NFL, their model is actually quite simple:

Focus on a core of about 20 high-priority players, then scout well to fill the other 30+ spots on the roster.

“But you need 85 guys.”

Ask yourself this: are players 50-85 ever going to see the field beyond the Campbell game? And if injuries occur and those guys are needed, was there much hope to begin with?

Yes, NFL teams have to dip into their practice squad, but does anyone feel good about it?

Players 50-85 aren’t sticking around anyway to be developed and will be gone in the transfer portal by next year.

So if you are Florida, knowing you hold the keys to a running back who was the first running back in a decade to eclipse 1,000 yards and had the 4th highest PFF grade of all Power Four backs with at least 200 carries in 2025, this is not a player you let walk and say “We’ll make it up somewhere else.”

Take your chance on Baugh and swing for the fences.