As the 2026 season is set to get underway, Florida fans are optimistic about things in Gainesville. Part of it is that it can’t be worse than the Billy Napier era, but the Gators also have a roster that is good enough to go 10-2 if things break right.
Our friends over at FSU don’t have the same feeling of optimism and are hoping for a minor miracle out of Mike Norvell. But as a game-by-game prediction from On3 highlights, FSU’s season might set up a chance for Florida to be the nail that is officially driven into Norvell’s coffin.
Florida could be the game that gets Mike Norvell fired
On3’s JD Pickell went through FSU’s schedule game-by-game. He projects that FSU will beat New Mexico State and SMU to open the season before losing to Alabama. Pickell then envisions FSU beating Central Arkansas and Virginia to start the year 4-1.
All things considered, this wouldn’t be a bad spot for FSU, and Seminole fans might start dreaming of a run in the ACC. But then Pickell thinks the wheels are going to fall off with losses to Louisville, Miami, and Clemson before a reprieve with a win over Boston College.
This would still have FSU at 5-4 with a shot at a big finish to salvage the year at 9-4 (which includes a bowl win), but in his projections, Pickell sees FSU losing to Pitt, NC State, and then Florida.
Florida State record prediction pic.twitter.com/dWVeTZ5yES
— J.D. PicKell (@jdpickell) August 7, 2026
Florida might be the end of the road for FSU
If this scenario plays out, it would set up a second year in a row where FSU could have made a bowl with a win over Florida but fell short. The headlines surrounding Norvell at this point would give us flashbacks to the headlines we wrote about Napier when it was the end of the road for him.
There would also be a sense of long-term pride for Gator fans to be the ones who ultimately kept FSU out of a bowl two years in a row and three times overall (2021). There would also be lore with Florida being the team to get Norvell fired.
Season | FSU record entering Florida game | Game Result |
|---|---|---|
2021 | 5-6 | Florida 24, FSU 21 |
2025 | 5-6 | Florida 40, FSU 21 |
2026 | 5-6 (Pickell projection) | Florida win (projected) |
For what it is worth, Norvell is currently 2-3 against Florida (and would probably be 2-4 had the two teams played in 2020).
One might say “Come on guys, haven’t you picked on Mike Norvell and FSU enough?”
To that we say, picking on Mike Norvell is like beating your child 50-0 at CFB 27.
It’s fun.
And if Gator fans had to endure all the Sun Belt Billy jokes, especially when FSU thought they were high and mighty in 2022 and 2023, then this potential season laid out for the Seminoles is a reminder that karma isn’t always kind.
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