Over the years, the Gators have gotten the better of FSU and have amassed an all-time series lead of 39–28–2. Some of those wins have been classic, while others have been a bit of a borefest. Likewise, some of those wins didn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things, while others had a lasting effect into the next season and beyond.
Sticking strictly to what we are going to call the modern era of this rivalry (1990 and beyond once Steve Spurrier arrived), this is our list of the six wins over FSU that created the biggest butterfly effect for at least one of the two programs.
Florida’s biggest butterfly effect wins over FSU since 1990
2025
It may seem crazy that we are including anything that happened from last year on this list, but there is a chance that last year’s win over FSU could wind up having a significant impact on jump-starting the Jon Sumrall Era. In particular, the 266 yards Jadan Baugh amassed on the ground made him the prime target Sumrall knew he wanted to keep, which led to a Christmas Eve visit that helped convince Baugh to stay in Gainesville.
We still have to see how 2026 plays out, but if Baugh and Florida have a big year, last year’s win over FSU might be looked back upon as a massive moment.
2024
How can two straight wins over FSU have vastly different effects for two straight years? Well, one could argue that had Florida found a way to lose to two-win FSU in the 2024 finale, despite the claims from Scott Stricklin that Billy Napier was safe heading into 2025, that there would have been some very real heat to revisit that decision. Instead, Florida finished with a four-game winning streak that served as positive press last offseason.
But had Florida lost, and Stricklin had been convinced to get rid of Napier, there is a world where Lane Kiffin arrives ahead of the 2025 season.
Whether that is a good thing remains to be seen.
2018
The game itself wasn’t very memorable as Florida stomped FSU 41-14. La’Mical Perine ran for 129 yards off 13 carries, and Trevon Grimes caught five passes for 118 yards to complete a 9-3 regular season in Dan Mullen’s inaugural year.
This game makes the list more so because of what it meant on the FSU side. This game cemented that FSU would not make a bowl, and the Seminoles snapped a 36-year streak. That officially eroded any goodwill that then first-year coach Willie Taggart may have had, and the 2018 finale helped set the stage for Taggart to get canned midway through the 2019 season, which then gave us the Mike Norvell Era.
2006
Maybe we are just on the wrong side of the algorithm, but the 25-yard touchdown pass from Chris Leak to Dallas Baker seldom pops up compared to other iconic moments in Florida history. It is quite possible, though, that the 2006 national title never happens without this TD, especially since FSU’s ensuing drive got down to the 29-yard line.
Florida would go on to hang on for the 21-14 win, defeat Arkansas in the SEC title game, and sneak into the BCS title game against Ohio State, where the Gators stomped the Buckeyes to claim their second national title and cemented their status as a modern blue blood in college football.
2001
Still one of the more controversial moments in the history of the series, Florida won 37-13, but Earnest Graham was hurt in the process with a sprained right knee. After the game, Steve Spurrier floated that FSU may have hurt Graham on purpose, stating, "The tape didn't show it clearly, but the (FSU LB) was doing something down there."
The significance of Graham’s injury is that Florida had to turn around and play Tennessee the following week, a game that had been pushed back to the end of November due to 9/11. Florida wound up losing 34-32 in the absence of Graham, which knocked Florida out of the SEC title game and national title contention.
As a bonus butterfly effect, that same Tennessee squad went on to lose to a Nick Saban-led LSU team in the SEC title game, which helped jumpstart one of the greatest coaching runs in college football history.
1995
Danny Wuerffel passed for 443 yards as the Gators shot out to a huge first-half lead before hanging on for the 35-24 win. The effect of this game was that it positioned Florida to play Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl for the national title.
Now, as we all know, that game is one Florida fans would rather forget as Tommie Frazier ran wild over the Gators, but there is an argument to be made that getting stomped against Nebraska set the stage for Florida’s 1996 season. Bob Pruett, the defensive coordinator in 1995, departed after the season, and Bob Stoops was hired for 1996.
Florida would go on to win its first national title in 1996, which might not have happened without its 1995 win over FSU.
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