As the Florida Gators ramp up for the 2025 season, there has been talk all offseason about whether Billy Napier can make a run into the playoffs this year. On paper, Florida has the roster to do it, but the daunting schedule combined with other lingering question marks makes it far from a guarantee.
Add ESPN to the list of entities that aren't feeling the love for Florida, as their bowl projection for the Gators would almost certainly spell the end of Billy Napier in Gainesville.
Florida must do better than its projected bowl game
Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN gave their preseason bowl projections, and Bonagura has Florida in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl against Kansas, while Schlabach projects the Gators in the Duke's Mayo Bowl against Duke.
Either of these would be an abject disaster for Napier, as it would not only mean Florida missed the playoffs, but they weren't even close enough to land in one of the New Year's Eve games.
Florida's schedule has been a massive topic of conversation this offseason, but there is reason to believe the Gators could still make it in with a 9-3 record.
Anything 8-4 or worse means that Florida is losing to someone they shouldn't be losing to in year four of the Napier Era.
Both Bonagura and Schlabach have Texas, Georgia, LSU, and Miami making the playoffs, all teams on Florida's schedule in 2025. Napier was hired at the same time as LSU hired Brian Kelly and Miami hired Mario Cristobal, so whatever one thinks of Florida's schedule, those are two benchmark games where Florida is going to get an apples-to-apples comparison.
For the record, we do like Florida's chances against Miami better than we do against LSU, which is ironic considering last year's results.
The moral of it all is that if Napier misses the playoffs but still winds up in a New Year's Eve bowl game, he will stick around for 2026.
If the Gators get shipped off to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl, Florida will have a new head coach in 2026.