Why our Confidence Meter labels Mississippi State a low-stress tilt

Our ongoing Confidence Meter series brings us to the back half of Florida's season. The Gators have to navigate a four-game gauntlet before getting a breather heading into their bye week.

And while Mississippi State is probably better than advertised, there is little reason to believe Florida won't walk out of The Swamp with a win.

As a reminder of our previous entries, we gave the following Confidence Meter to Florida's previous six games:

• LIU - 99.9%
• USF - 90%
• LSU - 45%
• Miami - 60%
• Texas - 20%
• Texas A&M - 50%

Mississippi State shouldn't challenge Florida

Last year's matchup with the Bulldogs was closer than the final score indicated. Florida had a massive goal-line stand and followed that up in the fourth quarter with a knockout touchdown.

Florida used a QB rotation in that game, and Mississippi State was content to play a soft zone that played right into the hands of what the Gators wanted to do on offense.

The defense for Florida wasn't great in this game last year, but it also served as the final wake-up call before some notable improvements started to take shape.

Confidence Meter against Mississippi State - 90%

We'll phrase it this way: if Florida loses to Mississippi State, then Billy Napier will be fired heading into the bye week.

Of Florida's SEC slate, Mississippi State is by far the weakest, and it isn't even close. And while last year was competitive for a bit, Florida also changed a lot of things around after that game that will carry over into 2025.

The only thing to give even a moment of pause is that this game does come after Florida's four-game gauntlet, and if that stretch goes poorly, then the state of the program could be weakened enough to give the Bulldogs a chance.

But if Florida is at all healthy, and the wheels are still on the track for their 2025 season, then this afternoon in The Swamp should be an easy one for the Gators.