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Confidence Meter: Texas A&M is Florida’s closing statement in the gauntlet

ByBenjamin Henderson|
Sep 14, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko embrace after the game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Sep 14, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier and Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko embrace after the game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The schedule for the Florida Gators has been discussed at length, and there is no getting around the four-game stretch Florida has to face in games three through six. After a gauntlet of LSU, Miami, and Texas, the Gators get a "reprieve" with Texas A&M.

And by "reprieve," the Aggies are still a potential top 15 squad ready to welcome the Gators to Kyle Field.

Given how last year went, how confident should Gator fans be heading into a matchup that could define the season?

As a reminder, here is what our "Confidence Meter" has been for the previous five games:

  • LIU - 99.9%
  • USF - 90%
  • LSU - 45%
  • Miami - 60%
  • Texas - 20%

Florida looks for revenge against Texas A&M

Last year, the Gators looked unprepared for Texas A&M. Coming off the heels of the Miami debacle, Florida looked lifeless and had a maddening approach to the game.

It was after the game that we here at Hail Florida Hail formally said Billy Napier needed to be fired.

Spoiler alert, he wasn't. For a while, the loss wasn't actually the worst as A&M was a contender for the playoffs until a late-season collapse left them 8-5.

Confidence Meter against A&M - 50%

Texas A&M feels like a gatekeeper to the SEC. The preseason SEC poll pegged the Aggies 8th, but they still have a strong enough roster to keep contact with the SEC, and it wouldn't be a massive shock if they snuck into the playoffs.

Even though this game is on the road, there is no getting around the fact that it is a must-win game for the Gators, which could go either way.

If Florida loses to A&M, it might be curtains for Napier because it's hard to envision the Gators turning around and beating the likes of Georgia and Ole Miss if they can't even get past the Aggies.

However, the defensive game plan Florida used last year against Texas A&M isn't the same one it was using by the end of the year. And assuming Lagway is healthy, we won't have to deal with the backdrop of the QB rotation that Napier employed last year.

And Napier does have a win at Kyle Field.

This feels like the true definition of a coin flip game, and Florida just needs to hope the odds are in their favor.

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