Florida's 2025 campaign is going to need a not-so-minor miracle to be salvaged. The Gators are 1-3 and might only get favored in one or two remaining games this season.
But despite all the gloom and doom, Vegas oddsmakers still see some life for Florida, and the spread against Texas isn't as large as one would think.
Florida with a chance against Texas
The opening odds for Florida and Texas have dropped, and it has the Longhorns as seven-point favorites in The Swamp this Saturday. Texas is a -300 favorite while Florida is a +225 underdog.
At first glance, that feels low, and it feels like free money to take Texas. The Gators feel like a dead team walking, and DJ Lagway has looked like a shell of himself. Add in the beatdown Texas gave Florida last year and seven points feels comically low.
But the Longhorns have had similar problems on offense as the Gators, and Arch Manning has not looked like the second coming of Tim Tebow. Florida's defense has been playing well, which could keep this game close.
This also follows the trend Vegas has had with the Gators against LSU and Miami, where Vegas kept the spread inside ten points even though the end result of both of those games was double digits.
There is, however, one rabbit up the sleeve of Billy Napier and the Gators. As a home underdog, the Gators are 6-3 straight up in the Billy Napier Era.
Never mind that Florida is also 4-16 against ranked teams; this feels like a spot where Florida does its once-a-year magic to keep the train on the track against all odds.
Florida has started the season 1-3 for the first time since 1986. After beating LIU, the Gators were upset by USF at home before road losses to LSU and Miami.
Billy Napier is now 20-22, and his job security has become an increasing topic of conversation.