Updated win total shows a growing belief in what Jon Sumrall is building at Florida

How much momentum has Jon Sumrall built for the Florida Gators going into the upcoming season? Enough to where even the win totals are feeling a little more optimistic.

The Gators projected win total has increased to 7.5 from an earlier spring projection of 6.5. That total puts Florida in the same boat as Ole Miss, who advanced to the CFP semifinals last season, and Oklahoma, who also made the playoffs.

Georgia and Texas, both on the Gators' schedule during that three-game stretch of doom in October and  early November, lead the way with 9.5 and Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M are right behind them at 8.5. Tennessee joins the pack with 7.5. There's far less optimism for first year coaches Ryan Silverfield at Arkansas and Will Stein at Kentucky as both teams are projected to be at the bottom with 4.5 wins. As for the nonconference schedule. Florida Atlantic and Campbell are expected to be walkovers and Florida State has a win total of 6.5.

READ MORE: Florida’s schedule adds pressure FSU never has to carry

Jon Sumrall's offseason and reputation are cause for optimism

Florida is a hot team right now. Sumrall and his coaching staff have built a top-five recruiting class, with the possibility of a No. 1 overall class if a couple of five-star prospects make some big moves. And Sumrall is a proven winner, unlike some of the other first-year coaches in the SEC. His worst season as a head coach was 9-5 at Tulane in 2024. Everything else has been 11 wins or more.

There's something to be said about having the reputation of being a winner. And it doesn't hurt that he's saying all the right things. Will that mean anything once the games start? Maybe. But there's still two and a half months before we have to worry about that. The perception of the Gators is positive right now, and that's a nice change over the way things were the past few seasons. 

The Gators schedule isn't easy, but it could be a lot worse

JD PicKell wasn't wrong when he said that the Gators schedule could be a lot worse. Sure, the stretch of games against Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma aren't going to be easy, but every team in the conference is going to have some rough stretches. The other seven opponents are projected to have win totals equal or lower than Florida. 

READ MORE: Florida got some early kicks in 2026 but avoided a total schedule disaster

The best way for Sumrall and Florida to meet and, hopefully surpass, the projected win totals is to win the games they are supposed to win. That means going through the non-conference schedule with a 3-0 record in games the Gators will likely be favored in and getting that opening conference win on the road against Auburn. There will be a ton of "toss-up" games for the Gators and a couple, likely Texas and Georgia, that they will be underdogs. It's a schedule that Sumrall should be able to navigate and, with a few breaks, the Gators could exceed expectations. 

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