Florida’s schedule in 2026 is going to be a bit easier than what it faced in 2024 and 2025, but it’s still not going to be a cakewalk. With the SEC adding a 9th conference game, there are virtually no “auto” wins on the schedule once SEC play begins against Auburn in Week 3. There is a reason why Vegas has Florida’s over/under at 6.5 or 7.5 wins in 2026.
FSU also has an over-under floating around 6.5 wins for 2026, but don’t let that fool anyone into thinking that Florida and FSU are on the same level heading into the new campaign.
FSU wouldn’t survive Florida’s schedule
Josh Pate was going over FSU’s outlook for 2026 and highlighted how, as of now, they are projected to make a bowl game. It wouldn’t be great for Seminole fans to go 7-5 but it would be an improvement from the dumpster fire that existed the last two years in Tallahassee.
But then Pate did a little thought experiment and looked at what it would look like if they had a different schedule for 2026:
“Well, we picked up the phone today. And we hit up FanDuel Mike, FDM. And we said, Mike, because we have the power to do this. We said, Mike, do us a favor. Could you call up the traders? A fancy word for people who make the lines and set the numbers. Could you call up the traders in the other room and ask them, if we gave Florida State Florida's schedule, what would the over-under win total for their season be? Mike hit us up. Took him about 20 minutes, and he gave us the following information.
If we change nothing about Florida State's team, but we give them Florida's schedule this year, their over-under win total would be 4.5 instead of 6.5. which would be the second-lowest in the entire SEC, ahead of only Arkansas. So that's our entry point for the 2026 season.”
FSU’s o/u win total is 6.5
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) April 17, 2026
I asked @FDSportsbook sources what it would be if they played Florida’s schedule
Not good pic.twitter.com/iTbJgizKRQ
If you look at FSU’s schedule as it stands right now, essentially the belief is that they could beat:
- New Mexico State
- Central Arkansas
- Virginia
- Boston College
- Pitt
- NC State
Give Florida that slate of teams, and they, too, would feel confident about winning at least six games in 2026. But once one swaps out Boston College, NC State, and Pitt for Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia, it turns out things get a bit more difficult.
Florida fans wouldn’t actually mind FSU going 6-6 or even 7-5 because it means Mike Norvell probably sticks around another year. And Norvell at FSU is nothing but good news for Florida fans.
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