The playoff bubble could turn into a mess that actually favors Florida

It was another hectic and chaotic weekend of college football. For better or worse, Florida was on a bye week and still managed to move up three spots in the AP Poll. Sitting at 5-2, the playoff hopes for the Gators are low, but they are not impossible.

We noted earlier today that Florida is part of a secondary pack of SEC teams all sitting with two losses. But is there a realistic chance for the Gators to make it into the field of 12 even if they pick up a third loss along the way?

Florida’s pathway to the playoffs isn’t over just yet

For the first two years of the college football playoff being at 12 teams, no team has made it in with more than two regular-season losses. Alabama notably made it last season with three losses, but that third loss came in the SEC title game.

But thanks in part to increased parity in college football, combined with the SEC’s move to a nine-game schedule, a 9-3 team could sneak in this year. Using the ESPN FPI metric, which admittedly is far from a perfect metric but it at least gives us a guideline, this is how the regular season would shake out if every game from now until the rest of the season was won by the favorite:

1. Utah: 12–0
2. Ohio State: 11–1
3. Notre Dame: 11–1
4. Miami: 11–1
5. Georgia: 11–1
6. Indiana: 11–1
7. Texas Tech: 11–1
8. Wake Forest: 11–1
9. UCLA: 11–1
10. Alabama: 10–2
11. BYU: 10–2
-------
12. Houston: 10–2
13. LSU: 9–3
14. Texas: 9–3
15. Ole Miss: 9–3
16. Tennessee: 9–3
17. Nebraska: 9–3
18. Florida: 9–3
19. Northwestern: 9–3
20. Louisville: 9–3
21. Arizona: 9–3
22. SMU: 9–3
23. Oklahoma State: 9–3
24. Wisconsin: 9–3
25. Oregon: 8–4

If this is what plays out, Utah, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, and Indiana would 100% be in.

If Texas Tech goes 11-1 but loses in the conference title game, their strength of schedule isn’t great, but their brand name probably gets them in. Wake Forest would actually have stronger metrics at 11-1 to get in than Texas Tech. UCLA won’t really have a marquee win either, but it’s hard to see an 11-1 Big Ten team getting left out.

But, as we will get to later, BYU was 11-1 in the regular season last year and they were kept out.

But let’s just pretend all nine of those teams make it in, and we account for the Group of Six champion getting in. That leaves two playoff spots for what could very quickly become a crowded logjam that starts arguing over semantics.

If Alabama wins out and goes 10-2, they will make it in off brand name alone. But they do have to travel to LSU and still host Auburn. Of course, if LSU beats Alabama and wins out themselves, they would wind up 10-2 and make it in.

The final spot, however, could make the Hunger Games look like child’s play. In this simulation, both BYU and Houston finish 10-2 with a whole host of teams, including Florida, sitting at 9-3. The committee has shown they are not above leapfrogging a Big 12 or ACC team for an SEC team that has more losses. Again, BYU litteraly experienced that last year. 

And the crazy part is that when looking at all the potential 9-3 teams at the end of the season, Florida has a really good shot of being the 9-3 team that stands out the most from the pack thanks to their wins over Ole Miss and Texas. This particular simulation has Florida losing to Georgia, but beating a Kentucky team that would finish 8-4, an Oklahoma team that finishes 7-5, and even our dear friends at FSU could finish 7-5.

In fact, there is a pathway for everyone on Florida’s schedule except for Vanderbilt to finish 2026 with a winning record. That would be a massive selling point to try and stand out if needed.

First things first, beat Georgia. But even if Florida were to lose to Georgia this Saturday, it’s not that insane to picture a pathway to the playoffs this December.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow