![Florida head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half of an NCAA mens basketball game against Mississippi State at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_56,w_2714,h_1526/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01kkszr07dbb81kx31nj.jpg "Florida head coach Todd Golden reacts during the second half of an NCAA mens basketball game against Mississippi State at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
The tournament bracket is set and the Florida is a No. 1 seed in the South region as expected. The Gators will open the tournament in Tampa on Friday and play the winner of Wednesday night's first four game between Prairie View A&M and Lehigh.
Now that the drama of the field is behind us, the Gators don't have the hardest road to get back to the Final Four, but there are some roadblocks that could lead to disappointment. There are some quality players in that South region and teams that could disrupt Florida's backcourt play.Â
The 1-seed in the South Region... FLORIDA! #MarchMadness @GatorsMBK pic.twitter.com/RG4FA9h4hb
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 15, 2026
So here are the nightmare scenarios that the Gators must avoid each round:
First round: Collapse of historic magnitude
If the Gators lose to Prairie View or Lehigh, they probably shouldn't return to Gainesville any time soon. A loss to either No.16 seed would be so much worse than Virginia's 20-point loss to UMBC in 2018 because at least the Retrievers won 25 games. Prairie View is two games over .500 and Lehigh is just one. Florida winning by less than 20 points would be a bad dream.
Second round: Iowa brings the pressure
The Hawkeyes have that annoying 1-2-2 press that can create chaos on the perimeter. Florida's ball handling is improved, but it's not a strength. Fran McCaffrey will have his team ready to challenge the Gators coming up the floor.
Sweet 16: Vanderbilt...nuff said
Yeah, the Commodores have a lineup that can put up numbers against anyone and averaged 92.5 points in the two games against Florida this season. If the Gators struggle from outside (5-fot-17 on 3-pointers) like they did Saturday, the final score could be a repeat of what we just saw in Nashville.
Elite Eight: Houston is a problem, especially at home
Seriously NCAA? So if the Gators can survive Iowa's quick hands in the backcourt and Vanderbilt's ability to put up big offensive numbers, the reward is to play Houston in Houston? This is no way to treat a defending champion!
Going back-to-back was never going to be easy and these potential scenarios will make it even harder.