At first glance, Florida’s side of the bracket for March Madness wound up with the exact nightmare scenario most Gator fans would have rather ignored. If chalk holds in the South Region, Florida will have a national title rematch against Houston in Houston. We’ll take a wild guess whose side the crowd will be on in that one.
But there is also a chance that Florida’s bracket could open up and be a relative breeze with some very realistic matchups. And compared to the draw that Duke got, Florida will ultimately live with the pathway it was given this March.
Florida will take its pathway over the path Duke got
Barring an all-time upset, Florida will like its chances in the second round against either Clemson or Iowa. Both teams have rebounding issues, and Florida should be a 10+ point favorite against both.
Meanwhile, if we look over at Duke, they will feed into either TCU or Ohio State. TCU beat Florida this year, while Ohio State is 26th in KenPom.
Now, Ohio State has a lot of similarities with Iowa, but it’s the Sweet 16 where things could be a real pain for Duke. The Blue Devils could face either St. John’s or Kansas in the Sweet 16. St. John’s just dismantled UConn in the Big East Tournament final and is led by legendary coach Rick Pitino. Kansas has a pretty good coach in their own right, and if Darryn Peterson pops off for One Shining Moment, it could end Duke’s chances.
Then there is who they could face in the Elite Eight. UConn is by far the weakest two-seed in the tournament based on KenPom, but it is still led by Dan Hurley. Duke also drew Michigan State as its No. 3 seed. Tom Izzo knows a thing or two about how to navigate the NCAA Tournament.
Add it all up, and there are far more potential pitfalls for Duke than Florida has, and should one of those pitfalls trip Duke up, and Florida makes it out of Houston, it sets up a potential Final Four game where Florida will be the clear favorite in Indianapolis.