Florida's strength of schedule is a significant backdrop for the Gators as they head into the 2025 campaign. While most people seem to think Florida is going to ride the wave it ended on in 2024, but computer models continue to struggle with what Florida is actually going to accomplish.
Florida might genuinely be a top 15 team in the country, but there is also a very real pathway Florida finishes SEC play with a losing record.
Florida Football could have a losing record in SEC play
The Kelley Ford Rating previously highlighted the fact that Florida has a brutal schedule ahead of it. Despite the fact that the KFord Rating has Florida ranked 15th in their computer rankings, the Gators have seven teams on their schedule rated higher than them heading into 2025.
It's that schedule that also gives Florida the real possibility of finishing with a losing record in SEC play.
The KFord Rating projects 3.6 SEC wins for Florida in 2025 and just a 53% chance of finishing SEC play with even a 4-4 record.
Projected SEC Standings v1 pic.twitter.com/eIaXgMVudd
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) June 17, 2025
For the Gators to have any shot of making the playoffs in 2025, it would need to sweep its non-conference slate and go, at worst, 5-3 in SEC play. KFord gives Florida a 23% of reaching five SEC wins.
Why so low?
It should be noted that KFord Ratings have a hint of truth to them but are not a perfect predictor. Last year, KFord predicted 5.7 wins for Florida, which initially appeared to be accurate until the upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss.
But given that Florida has Georgia and Texas once again on the slate, combined with road trips to LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, it's understandable why a computer model would paint a tough road for the Gators.
It comes down to how high the ceiling is for DJ Lagway and the rest of the Gator offense because if the sophomore star achieves his ceiling, it can go a long way in defying computer expectations.