The belief around Florida for the 2026-27 season is that anything short of the Final Four is going to feel like a bust. The Gators were a No. 1 seed last year and were upset by Iowa in the 2nd round, but they return almost everyone from that squad.
As such, Florida was selected today as the AP Preseason No. 1 ranked team heading into the season.
It’s a great honor for Florida, and it makes sense. The only problem is that over the past decade, almost no preseason No. 1 teams have achieved what Florida is hoping to achieve this year.
Florida named preseason No. 1 team and hopes to buck trends
For what it’s worth, Florida was the preseason No. 1 team for the 2006-07 season when they went on to win back-to-back national titles. But in recent history, being a preseason No. 1 hasn’t meant postseason success.
In the last ten years, the 2020-21 Gonzaga squad is the only preseason No. 1 to even make it to the Final Four. Six of those nine (not counting Michigan State for the canceled 2019-20 season) failed to even make it to the Elite Eight.
Of those nine tournaments dating back to the 2017 edition of March Madness, just eight of the 36 teams who started off in the top four overall in the AP preseason polls went on to make it to the Final Four. 19 of those 36 teams to make the Final Four started outside of the top ten.
UNC in the 2008-09 season is the last preseason No. 1 to go on to win the national title.
Florida feels a bit different than most preseason No. 1s because it has a proof of concept behind it. Four of Florida’s starters all had key roles on the 2025 national title team, and after earning a No. 1 seed last year, all Florida did was essentially swap Xaivian Lee for Denzel Aberdeen.
Sunday’s loss to Baylor in an exhibition game wasn’t great, but on the bright side, the Gators had one of the worst shooting days imaginable, and it still took overtime to beat them.
Florida formally opens its season on November 2 against Miami in Tampa.
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