Predicting every game on Florida’s 2026 schedule in Jon Sumrall’s debut

With the 2026 season fast approaching, we are at the point of the offseason where we here at Hail Florida Hail need to make our formal predictions for the year. What’s hard about figuring Florida out, and why people all over the country have struggled to pinpoint where the Gators are going to finish, is that the roster for the Gators is genuinely good. The problem is that the two areas where Florida has genuine question marks on the roster are the ones that could derail the entire operation if things go south.

So are we choosing optimism, to play it safe, or gloom and doom for 2026? Let’s dive in.

Predicting Florida’s record for the 2026 season

Sept. 5 — vs. Florida Atlantic, 7:45 p.m. - Win

The Owls do have a passing attack that could cause Florida some issues if they are not prepared, but there is zero excuse for Jon Sumrall to lose his debut in The Swamp.

Sept. 12 — vs. Campbell, 5:30 p.m. - Win

If Florida loses this one, Sumrall may not make it through his first season in Gainesville. Even within the FCS ranks, Campbell is no good, and Florida could win this game by 50 if they wanted to.

Sept. 19 — at Auburn, 7 p.m. - Win

The national media has been a bit surprised by how chippy things have been online between Florida fans and Auburn fans, but this was a notable rival for the Gators until the SEC blew up the scheduling. 

In 2026, Auburn is the most apples-to-apples comparison Sumrall and the Gators will have this year, given both have a new coach and are coming off a losing season.  Even though this is on the road, we like Florida’s roster better than Auburn’s, and Sumrall smacked Alex Golesh in their prior meeting in the American Conference.

Also, fun fact: in six games against Power Four competition at USF, Byrum Brown had a 57% completion rate with just five TDs and two INTs, averaging 199 yards per game.

Sept. 26 — vs. Ole Miss - Win

This is our first major swing, but there's something about Ole Miss we don’t trust for the 2026 season. Yes, they still have Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, but the rest of the roster had major turnover, and the mad scientist who was the master at putting it all together, Lane Kiffin, has left.

Pete Golding did well to keep the ship together in the playoffs, but his defense at Ole Miss was never that impressive. Combined with this game at home, and the fact that Ole Miss has to go through the circus of the LSU game the week before, we are taking our swing on the Gators.

Oct. 3 — at Missouri - Win

This has trap game written all over it with flashing red lights. Missouri, as a team, does not impress us. They will have Austin Simmons at QB, who has his own links to Gator lore. Here is a nagging question, though: Why, when Lane Kiffin left for LSU, did he not bring with him the QB he had been grooming for three years?

We have no clue what Ahmad Hardy's status will be, and this game will be a huge chance for Sumrall to prove things are more consistent in Gainesville under his regime.

Oct. 10 — vs. South Carolina - Win

We don’t really have Florida starting 6-0, do we? Do we?

Well, looks like we do.

The thing is, even if the Ole Miss and Missouri games were a loss, this is one of the games on Florida’s schedule they can’t afford to drop. And depending on how South Carolina’s season is going, this game could be the swan song for Shane Beamer.

Oct. 17 — at Texas - Loss

The wild part is that Texas is a team we don’t trust at all heading into 2026. Even if one ignores the loss to Florida, the Longhorns struggled hard to escape a couple of other games that easily could have turned last year into a 7-5 year.

But factoring in that Florida’s weakness in 2026 is along the offensive line, this is a matchup Texas could exploit, especially in Austin, and Austin Simmons could have a field day. Florida falls to 6-1 heading into the bye.

Oct. 31 — vs. Georgia in Atlanta, 3:30 p.m. - Loss

It’s kind of a rinse and repeat from the Texas game. Last year, the 4-8 Gators took Georgia to the wire, so logic would suggest any small improvement finally gets Florida over the hump.

But like Charlie Brown kicking the football, we just can’t put a win down, especially with the offensive line concerns.

Nov. 7 — vs. Oklahoma - Loss

Trouble in paradise? We hope not, but if we gave Florida a loss because of trench concerns, we have to keep that theme going against Oklahoma.

Now, for the record, we would hope Sumrall finds a way to pick off at least one of these three teams. But until we have more faith in the offensive line, it’s three losses in a row for Florida.

Nov. 14 — at Kentucky - Win

One Florida clears its gauntlet; the schedule does clear up down the stretch. Now we have to acknowledge that this isn’t the same old Kentucky the Gators beat up for 31 straight games. But the roster for Florida is still way better and with this being a homecoming for Sumrall, we think he might have a little extra juice this week, especially if Florida is on a three-game winning streak.

Nov. 21 — vs. Vanderbilt - Win

A ton of people don’t know what to make of Vanderbilt in 2026. The computer metrics would tell you they are staring down a crash-and-burn back to Earth. Their actual schedule, combined with a clear identity in Nashville, paints a picture of how Vanderbilt could be ranked for this game.

Either way, Florida has to win its home finale, or it will be a long offseason.

Nov. 27 — at Florida State, 3:30 p.m. - Win

Let’s pretend Florida gets Shane Bearmer fired earlier in the year. The season finale for 2026 could be Florida’s second chance to send a coach packing and end the Mike Norvell era.

The vibes in Tallahassee are even lower than the vibes were in Gainesville before the 2025 season, so this has to be a win.

Final record prediction - 9-3

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