![Florida 2026-2027 quarterback Aaron Philo (12) throws during Florida football practice at Heavener Football Complex in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_5000,h_2812/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ReutersImages/mmsport/213/01m0g9637zvtbwxnqt8e.jpg "Florida 2026-2027 quarterback Aaron Philo (12) throws during Florida football practice at Heavener Football Complex in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
More and more predictions are rolling in on the Gators, and there are two interesting trains of thought starting to develop. Behind door number one is this belief that Florida could make a run all the way into the playoffs if things go right in 2026. Behind door number two is a path where Florida makes a low-tier bowl in 2026 for Jon Sumrall’s debut season.
The safe bet is somewhere in between, but it’s a reminder of just how volatile this season could be.
Florida has projections all over the place for 2026
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports put out his current bowl projections for 2026. In this iteration, he has Florida in the Cure Bowl against USF. Not to besmudge our friends in green and gold, especially since they came into The Swamp last year and beat Florida, but this would not be a great result for Sumrall. Going to the Cure Bowl would mean Florida was passed over by the nine bowl games with direct SEC tie-ins, which would be even worse given that the SEC should get at least three teams into the playoffs.
Yet speaking of playoffs, Crawford wrote litteraly yesterday that Florida was a dark-horse contender trying to sneak in. Crawford wrote in a piece called “College Football Playoff crashers” that:
”If the Gators establish an identity early and survive September, they possess the roster, coaching edge, and home-field juice to crash the playoff conversation.”
Crawford’s own juxtaposition of results mirrors what a lot of people have struggled with, and that’s what to make of the Gators. We said yesterday that the Gators' ceiling in 2026 is the playoff quarterfinals, while the floor is 6-6.
On3’s Wilson Alexander also identified Florida as an unranked team that could crash the playoffs, stating:
“Facing a schedule with four games against preseason top 10 teams, Florida could be in the hunt if it springs a couple of upsets.”
Meanwhile, Crain & Cone, now under the On3 banner, released a game-by-game prediction and have Florida going 6-6.
Florida is the wildcard in 2026
The disparity in where people think Florida will finish comes from a combination of an otherwise talented roster and huge unknowns at QB and along the offensive line. People like Jon Sumrall as a human, and like the energy he is bringing to Gainesville, but he is still an unproven Power Four head coach at the end of the day.
And because people were spurned too many times by making similar playoff predictions during the Billy Napier era, it’s easier to take the safer route of something like the Cure Bowl or 6-6 and ask for forgiveness later.
All we know is that talking season is almost over, and we get to start the real season in just two weeks.
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