Ever since it became clear that Florida was in a prime spot to land a No. 1 seed for the second straight year, it also became clear who the Gators might have to face in a potential Elite Eight showdown. Assuming Florida makes it out of Tampa this weekend, the Gators would get on a plane to Houston, where they could wind up with a rematch against the Houston Cougars.
And while most experts seem to have an Elite Eight matchup between Florida and Houston in the works, one expert isn’t sold that Houston is making it that far.
Florida might not face Houston in the Elite Eight
We all remember what a pain Houston was to play against last year in the national title game and how Florida had to stage a gritty second-half comeback to cut down the nets in San Antonio, so it’s understandable if Gator fans have some flashbacks when looking down the bracket.
But CBS expert Wally Szczerbiak isn’t as sold that this version of Houston is the same as last year’s version of Houston:
“I've been waiting for Houston to show it all season long. This is a more talented Houston team player by player than last year's squad.... They are not uncomfortable to play against like most Houston teams. This team is trying to figure out whether they want to just outscore you or get in the mud and actually stop you. This team has not shown the ability to stop anyone for the last couple of weeks defensively, so I just think Houston is primed to get clipped off early.”
"They aren't uncomfortable to play against like most Houston teams... I just think Houston is primed to get clipped off early."@wallyball believes Houston could be on upset alert early in the tournament. pic.twitter.com/9RUPafEVLc
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 17, 2026
To Szczerbiak’s point, even though Houston is 2nd in the country in points per game against, they are giving up nearly five points more per game this season compared to last. Teams are also shooting 2% better against Houston this season than last.
It means the Cougars are still a top-level defensive team, but whereas last year they were in the conversation for one of the all-time elite defensive teams, this year they are simply among the great defensive teams for this season.