Florida’s pathway to make it back to the Final Four is far from a lock. The Gators should, keyword should, be able to get out of Tampa without too much drama before it gets on a plane to Houston for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. As we have been noting, there is a pathway this bracket breaks wide open for Florida and gives them a direct pathway to the Final Four.
But if chalk holds, there is one looming gatekeeper at the end of the road, and analysts are torn on who is going to make it out of the South Region.
Florida isn’t a lock to make the Final Four
Given a sampling of various expert analysts' picks, very few people see Florida hitting a roadblock until it reaches the Elite Eight. As longtime college basketball analyst Andy Katz put it, he anticipates there being upsets early on but has Florida among a group of five (Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and UConn) that are “upset proof” until later in the tournament.
But it is the looming potential matchup against Houston in the Elite Eight that would take place in Houston that has everyone torn. Most of the analysts have been split on who would win that potential matchup.
During the Selection Sunday show, Clark Kellogg and Bruce Pearl both picked Florida to advance. David Cobb and Issac Trotter of CBS Sports also have Florida making it back to the Final Four. Dick Vitale not only has Florida advancing, but he has the Gators going all the way to another national title.
But guys like Seth Davis on the Selection Sunday show, Jason Owens of Yahoo Sports, and Gary Parrish, Cameron Salereno, and Matt Norlander of CBS Sports all see the Cougars to be the one to advance.
Then there is the curveball that ESPN analyst Jay Bilas threw, where he envisions Florida matching up with Illinois in the Elite Eight, only for Illinois to continue onward to the Final Four.
For what it is worth, ESPN analytics favor Houston over Florida while Vegas betting odds give the edge to the Gators.
What does it all mean?
Well, Florida has to get to the Elite Eight first for any of this to matter. While Katz’s take that Florida is mostly upset-proof is probably true, there are potential pitfalls along the way that could take out the Gators before the Elite Eight.
But if Florida gets to the Elite Eight, and whether it is Houston or Illinois waiting, expect another knock-down and drag-out war to get a ticket to the Final Four.