Notre Dame’s new CFP guarantee could create a nightmare scenario for Florida

If you want to have high hopes for the 2026 season, there is a pathway for Florida to go 10-2, and it wouldn’t be as shocking as some would make it out to be. Florida could also go 6-6, and it would not shock us, but for this exercise, we are going to think positive.

10-2 should be a lock to make the playoffs given Florida’s schedule, but a wrinkle in the CFP procedures involving Notre Dame creates a potential scenario down the road that would cause riots in the streets if it played out.

Notre Dame would get to leapfrog Florida in the CFP

If we flash back to December, the Fighting Irish had a meltdown after they were left out of the playoffs in favor of Miami. In one of the only cases in Hail Florida Hail history where we will defend the Hurricanes, it was the correct choice from the committee since, you know, Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

Details.

Notre Dame pouted like children, skipped the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and started their offseason early.

Heading into 2026, there is a new provision in the CFP procedures that guarantees Notre Dame a spot in the playoffs if they finish ranked in the top 12. This isn’t “new” information, as it was circulated at the end of last year, but it was confirmed to be the way of the land as the CFP rolled out its committee for 2026.

In addition to Notre Dame getting a spot in the playoffs if they finish in the top 12, all four Power Four conference champions (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) will get a guaranteed slot in the playoffs along with the highest-rated champion from the Group of Six.

Florida could rank No. 9 and still get left out

So now that we have laid out the procedures, what does this have to do with Florida?

Well, let’s go back to the dream of going 10-2. Last year, both Oklahoma and Alabama were 10-2 in the regular season. In the final rankings, Oklahoma was 8th, and Alabama was 9th (after losing in the SEC title game), and both teams made it into the playoffs.

But there is a pathway because of this Notre Dame rule that a team could finish as the No. 9 ranked team and still get left out of the playoffs.

Imagine the following:

• 1 - SEC Champion
• 2 - Big 10 Champion
• 3 - At Large Team
• 4 - At Large Team
• 5 - At Large Team
• 6 - At Large Team
• 7 - At Large Team
• 8 - At Large Team
• 9 - Florida after going 10-2
• 10 - Big 12 Champion
• 11- ACC Champion
• 12 - Notre Dame
• 13- Group of Six Champion

In this scenario, the Big 12 Champion, the ACC Champion, the Group of Six Champion, and Notre Dame would all get to leapfrog Florida, and the Gators would be excluded.

If you really want to go crazy, there is a pathway where the No. 7-ranked team could get left out if the SEC and Big 10 champions are lower-ranked as well.

For all you rage baiters out there, we aren’t putting money on Florida going 10-2 as Jon Sumrall needs to prove his offensive line can hold up. But before you type some nonsense of "You are an idiot, Florida's isn't going 10-2", take Florida out of the equation if you wish and replace them with some other 10-2 team, perhaps your own. Notre Dame would leapfrog them too.

All because they think they are too good for Pop Tarts.

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