National analyst drops blunt verdict on Florida’s real March Madness ceiling

Florida is 6-2 in the SEC, but one national analyst isn't solid on the Gators cutting down the nets in March and April
Jan 28, 2026; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) and guard Boogie Fland (0) celebrate a play against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images
Jan 28, 2026; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Florida Gators forward Thomas Haugh (10) and guard Boogie Fland (0) celebrate a play against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

One would think coming off the heels of breating the breaks off South Carolina that the vibes would be high for the Florida Gators. Todd Golden and crew are now 6-2 in SEC play, and five of those wins have come via a blowout. KenPom still loves the Gators, as Florida is 8th in the updated metrics.

But there is this nagging flaw that keeps popping up for Florida that is going to hold the Gators back in March if it doesn’t get fixed soon.

Florida still can’t shoot threes

Even in a 95-48 win, Florida guards Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland combined to go 0-5 from three. The rest of the Gators shot quite well from deep, with Urban Klavzar coming off the bench to shoot 3-6 from deep, and Thomas Haugh was 3-5.

This is nothing new and has been the ongoing gag throughout the season. Field of 68 analyst John Henson highlighted the fact that even though Florida has one of the best front courts in the country, the lack of guard play makes it hard to trust Florida in March:


“I would just say this team is one of the best teams in the country, and they're 344th in three-point percentage. So, you know, we could keep saying where maybe the ball will go in eventually. We keep saying it, but I mean, damn, it's January. It might be February. Like, are you going to hit shots or not? Right? I think that if they can get the guard play on the perimeter, it may be because of the spacing. They're not getting open shots. There are a lot of factors that could not be because of them, per se. 

But, they've got to shoot the ball better. And like Jarrell said, that backcourt's too inconsistent. There are some dog backcourts out there that are going to sit on that. And I love the bigs as much as anyone else. But if you got the backcourt not giving you production at the highest level when it's time to really go get it, it's going to be a long night. 

And I got a funny feeling we're going to be sitting here in March and, you know, Boogie Fland and (Xaivian) Lee are going to have a crappy game, and it's going to be Christmas, right? They're going to be going home. And so at some point the shots have to fall, but I don't know if that's going to happen. We're deep into the season right now.” 

March Madness 

If we are being honest, his concerns are not unfounded. Last year’s magical run was fueled by tough shot after tough shot when it mattered most, and at some point this year, Florida’s guards are going to have to come through with a magical moment of their own.

Xaivian Lee had that moment against Vanderbilt, only to be in single digits for points the last three games. The same goes for Boogie Fland, who hasn’t scored more than ten points in the last four games.

To survive March, Lee and Fland will need six straight solid performances, not just one.

And until they can string those games together, it will be hard to trust Florida in March to repeat their 2025 run.

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