It may seem like the Florida Gators have no shot this Saturday against LSU after the disastrous loss to USF, but Vegas odds have been creeping back towards the Gators.
After the spread opened at 9.5 points, it has already come down to 7.5, a sign the betting public has faith in Billy Napier and crew.
So to get a better idea of why it is LSU might not seem as scary as their No. 3 ranking would indicate, we reached out to our Fansided sister site, Death Valley Voice, and spoke with their site expert, Connor Grootenhuis, to get his take on the state of the Tigers and how two former Gators are going in their new home.
LSU expert lays out whether Florida has a chance
Hail Florida Hail:
LSU's offense has had its fair share of issues to start the year. Has that been scheme, bad luck, performance, or other?
Connor Grootenhuis:
LSU's slow offensive starts have been due to a mix of poor game planning and a lack of execution. Joe Sloan's approach hasn't been effective, and it doesn't help that Garrett Nussmeier has been inaccurate.
The running game hasn't been able to get going, and Caden Durham being held to just 2.2 yards per carry against Louisiana Tech is definitely concerning. The offensive line was great in the opener against Clemson, but after starting center Braelin Moore went down with an injury on the first play from scrimmage against Louisiana Tech, the offensive line struggled. The Tigers won't do themselves any favors with another slow start in this one.
HFH:
LSU took in Jack Pyburn and Ja'Keem Jackson out of the transfer portal. Pyburn's PFF has been low through two games and Jackson has barely played. What is the actual vibe around those two?
CG:
Jackson's lack of playing time can be attributed to the stellar play of cornerbacks Mansoor Delane and five-star true freshman DJ Pickett. Delane had a starting role locked down in Fall Camp, but it has been Pickett's emergence that has led to Jackson not seeing as much playing time. It's also possible that Jackson's hamstring injury from Fall Camp is still lingering. For now, Jackson remains a solid depth piece in LSU's new-look secondary.
Pyburn is a part of an LSU defensive front that has generated four sacks so far this season. Pyburn's numbers aren't other-worldly so far, as he has six tackles and 0.5 sacks to his name. Although not standing out in the box scores, Pyburn's impact is being felt. He's done a good job of eating up blocks, which has helped free up backers such as Harold Perkins Jr, who is now thriving in the star position.
HFH:
How much paranoia is there among LSU fans that the Vegas odds have been dropping towards Florida?
CG:
The public is backing the Gators on the spread, and while it's certainly noteworthy, it hasn't led to too much paranoia among LSU fans. Most of the paranoia among Tiger fans has been due to LSU's surprising lack of offense to begin the season, and not Vegas oddsmakers.
Tiger fans know Nussmeier and company are capable of much more, and it could be just a matter of time until things start clicking. With that being said, fans will start sweating if LSU puts together a couple of three-and-outs to begin the game.
HFH:
Hypothetically speaking, because I personally think LSU is going to win, what happens to Brian Kelly if he loses to Billy Napier for the 2nd year in a row?
CG:
LSU's win over Clemson did wonders for Brian Kelly. Kelly would certainly feel the heat if he fell to Napier for a second consecutive season. However, a loss wouldn't result in drastic measures. Kelly's contract runs through 2031, and his buyout at this point would exceed $60 million.
Plus, in the 12-team playoff, LSU could potentially still get into the CFP with one or two SEC losses. It would take a loss to Florida and then several other underwhelming performances for Kelly to really be on the hot seat.
HFH:
This series has always has a way of being close. What is your prediction of the final score?
CG:
The Tigers and Gators have played some wild contests in recent seasons. LSU's offense should be a bit improved from the first two weeks of the season, but expecting the Tigers to go crazy is a stretch. After what happened last weekend, the Gators are going to bring their best, and it wouldn't be surprising to see an aggressive Gator game plan make this game a low-scoring slugfest.
But in the end, LSU should be able to take care of business on its home turf. Score prediction: LSU wins 24-20.