Latest Bracketology comes with a potential Pandora's box for Florida

Florida is getting bumped up to a No. 1 seed by most brackets
Mar 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden yells to his players during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Mar 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden yells to his players during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

With the regular season over, Florida will find out their pathway to the Final Four on Sunday. Even though various conference tournaments will get hyped up, history seems to indicate that Florida’s seed may already be set in stone, barring an upset loss on Friday in the SEC Tournament.

The Gators have been ascending and have marched all the way from being a projected No. 6 seed back up to a potential No. 1 seed. But while various mock brackets seem to think Florida is going to make it on the top line, their newfound position is going to come with a major caveat.

Florida is seen as a No. 1 seed in the latest brackets

After Florida’s win against Kentucky and UConn’s loss on Saturday, almost every bracket listed by Bracket Matrix has Florida now as a No. 1 seed. On paper, that sounds great, and Florida is almost guaranteed now to be Tampa for the first two rounds of the tournament.

Florida is also projected to wind up in the Houston Regional, and this is where things start to get a bit tricky.

As we have pointed out before, there is a real possibility of Florida having to face Houston in the Elite Eight in Houston. The Cougars would be able to stay home because Rice University is considered the host of the Houston Regional and because the Cougars have only played one game in the Toyota Center this season.

The irony is that bumping up to the No. 1 seed is part of what unlocks that potential door.

Had Florida stayed the 5th-ranked team, which would make them the top-ranked No. 2 seed, they would still have had priority over Houston, and in that scenario, the Gators would have been looking at a rematch with a vulnerable UConn squad.

But if UConn gets bumped down to a No. 2 seed, the Huskies probably wind up in Washington, D.C. or in Chicago. They certainly wouldn’t pick Houston as their top choice. Likewise, the other projected No. 2 seeds right now are Illinois and Michigan State. They, too, wouldn’t pick Houston as their top choice. San Jose, the site of the West Regional, is going to be the bottom pick for all the No. 2 seeds and will probably go to whoever is ranked 8th overall.

Now there are a million things that could alter this potential Florida vs. Houston Elite Eight matchup, but the way things are shaking out, it seems like a national title game rematch could be a real possibility. 

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