Florida dropped to 5-4 on the season on Saturday night with a disappointing 23-7 loss at home to Oklahoma. The game felt like a microcosm of the Gators' biggest issues as Florida has cycled through head coaches since 2010. Some of the most glaring issues included a stagnant offense with poor quarterback play and a defense that couldn't get off the field.
With just three games remaining, Sumrall's first season will finish with eight regular-season wins at best. But with remaining games looming against 7-2 Kentucky next week and games against Vanderbilt and Florida State, a six or seven-win season feels more likely.
Let's take a quick look at how Sumrall's first season in Gainesville compares to some of the Gators' previous head coach hires in recent years.
Jon Sumrall was hired to overachieve in Year 1. So far, Florida hasn't
Here's a look at how Sumrall stacks up in year one to some previous recent hires. As you can see, he has already fallen below the likes of Dan Mullen and Jim McElwain.
- Billy Napier, 2022: 6-7, Lost to Oregon State in Las Vegas Bowl
- Dan Mullen, 2018: 10-3, Beat Michigan in Peach Bowl
- Jim McElwain, 2015: 10-4, Loss to Michigan in Citrus Bowl
- Will Muschamp, 2011: 7-6, beat Ohio State in Gator Bowl
- Urban Meyer, 2005: 9-3, Beat Iowa in Outback Bowl
- Ron Zook, 2002: 8-5, Lost to Michigan in Outback Bowl
As you can see, despite the 4-0 start and two upset wins over Ole Miss and Texas, the losses to Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia and Oklahoma puts Sumrall closer to Napier, Muschamp and Ron Zook territory. While the hope is that Sumrall's tenure doesn't end up like either of those three coaches, the Napier metric is a bit concerning. Like Sumrall, Napier was hired after he had multiple successful seasons in the Sun Belt at Louisiana.
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The one other slight concern is that Sumrall's first season is turning into one of his worst as a head coach. So far, Florida's four losses are close to the most he has incurred as a head coach.
Sumrall's worst season of his career came in 2024, during his first season at Tulane. The Green Wave finished 9-5 on the season, but also made it to the AAC Championship Game in a massively successful first season. During his first season at Troy in 2022, the Trojans finished 12-2.
Of course, it is entirely possible that Florida can rattle off three straight wins and win a bowl game to reach nine wins. But with the way this Florida team has been playing in recent weeks, it's hard to imagine getting a win on the road against a 7-2 Kentucky team.
The Gators should get past Vanderbilt and Florida State, but this team doesn't look worthy of any gimme games at this rate.
If Sumrall wants to match what he's done at previous head coaching stops, things need to get turned around in a hurry.
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