![Florida head coach Billy Napier watches warm ups before an NCAA football game in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 4, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2678,h_1506/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01k6x6dpzsv55391ct4v.jpg "Florida head coach Billy Napier watches warm ups before an NCAA football game in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 4, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
This may seem like a surprise to people, but Florida beating Texas on Saturday actually wasn't that much of a surprise. We here at Hail Florida Hail predicted a Gators win in large part because Billy Napier is good for one or two rabbits out of a hat per season, and Texas felt like a house of cards waiting to collapse.
The challenge for Florida, and what has been the flaw of the Billy Napier Era, is responding to a big win, and the Vegas oddsmakers don't see the win on Saturday as an indication that the ship is turned around just yet.
Florida opens as underdogs against Texas A&M
The opening line for Florida vs Texas A&M had the Gators as 8.5-point underdogs, though that line has dropped to 7.5 points, which is a similar trend to what we saw happen with the Florida vs. Texas spread that ultimately settled at 4.5 points.
The problem this time around for Florida is that they are on road in College Station and there in one stat that doesn't paint a hopeful picture for the Gators:
Billy Napier is 7-3 as an underdog at home.
Billy Napier is 1-10 as an underdog on the road and is 4-11 overall on the road.
Coincidentally, the one road win as an underdog Napier has under his belt is at Texas A&M in 2022 against then head coach Jimbo Fisher.
There are a plethora of reasons why Florida seems to struggle on the road, but even if this were a neutral-site game, there is another nagging flaw that Vegas doesn't seem to trust with the Gators:
Consistency.
Napier's mantra of "Spot The Ball" is supposed to be a symbol of being ready each and every game. But in the Napier Era, the Gators have been anything but consistent from week to week and have been prone to giant letdowns after big wins.
Even at his press conference on Monday, Napier said:
"We handled adversity well. Now we've got to handle success."
If Florida's defense continues to play well and DJ Lagway rounds into form, anything is possible.
But Vegas isn't sold just yet on Florida.