Coming off its big win over Texas, the Florida Gators are now 2-3 on the season and 1-1 in SEC play. Florida is still unranked, but the win does help some of the gloom and doom that had been hanging over Gainesville over the past month.
The slow start has put a cap on what Florida can actually achieve in 2025, but what is the realistic ceiling and floor for the Gators as we near the halfway point of the season?
Florida Gators Ceiling: 8-4 and a berth in the SEC Championship
Before you go screenshot this and run around saying what an insane take this is, keep mind that this is if everything goes right for Florida what the possibilities are.
Because, while yes, there are tons of reasons to be skeptical of beating a flawed Texas team that is now unranked, one can also squint and convince themselves of what Florida could be the rest of the way.
Florida's defense has continued to look great and should continue to keep Florida in every game it plays.
So if DJ Lagway has figured things out and keeps looking like the Lagway from last year, if Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III continue to look like five-star playmakers, and if Jadan Baugh continues to be a featured back, Florida has a pathway to score just enough points to topple everyone left on their schedule.
Saturday's game against Texas A&M will reveal a ton, and Florida is an 8.5-point underdog, but if Florida does walk out of College Station with a win, it has a pathway to still finish 6-2 in the SEC, which is what Georgia was last year when it qualified for Atlanta.
Florida Gators Floor: Billy Napier is fired before the Georgia game
Now that we have just gassed up the possibility of Florida going on a miracle run, let's also be honest about where the Gators stand in 2025. They are still 2-3, and they are an 8.5-point underdog against Texas A&M.
Billy Napier is 7-3 as a home underdog.
Billy Napier is 1-10 as a road underdog and is 4-11 overall on the road.
A loss at A&M would drop Florida to 2-4 with wins over LIU and unranked Texas.
After A&M, is a home game against Mississippi State, which has been much more competitive than expected in 2025. The Bulldogs also have the benefit of a bye week this week prior to playing Florida. For what it's worth, Napier is 3-3 when playing a team that is coming off a bye while Florida had to play the week before.
What we are getting at is if Florida loses to A&M, and then loses to Mississippi State on Homecoming and drops to 2-5 on the season going into the second bye week, is there any pathway for Napier to save himself at that point outside of Scott Stricklin doesn't want to do his job?
You know what? Don't answer that, that's probably a rhetorical question.