After last week’s loss to Georgia, the Gators enter November and still have a lot to pay for. Including a potential bowl game, a ten-win season is still on the table. As we learned in 2023, there is also the potential to not even make a bowl if things go south.
Now that we've worked through our frustrations from the Georgia loss, it is time to refocus and take on a wounded Oklahoma opponent at home. More importantly, it is a test to see if Florida learned anything from their debacle against South Carolina.
Florida enters The Swamp as the favorite against Oklahoma
- Spread: Florida -6.5
- Moneyline: Florida -220; Oklahoma +184
- Over/under: 44.5 points
When we rewind to the last time Florida was a favorite at home this season, they were coming off a loss to Missouri. The narrative all week was wondering what the response from Florida would be.
Spoiler alert: it wasn’t good.
On paper, though, there are reasons Florida should feel confident tonight.
Unlike South Carolina, there is not even a hint that Oklahoma’s offense can threaten Florida. We anticipate those being famous last words, but ever since the South Carolina debacle, the defense for Florida has found a bit of an identity in the last two games. Throw in the fact that Oklahoma is breaking in a literal first-time offensive coordinator, and we will have question marks if the Sooners get more than 24 points.
Of course, the problem over the last four games is whether or not Florida can get to 24 points, as teams have seemed to figure out Buster Faulkner’s offense. The real key is going to be whether or not Florida has learned its lesson when teams load up in the box and/or sit on the outside zone runs. The problem for Florida over the last month is that Faulk seems to think that if he throws enough eye candy at defenses, they won’t figure out where he is going.
This is where we think the move to Tramell Jones has enough upside for Florida to manufacture points. Oklahoma’s defense is solid, but it’s no Georgia. And Jones has shown he can move the ball in spots; he just needs to stay away from the backbreaking interceptions.
No actual result is going to shock us tonight, but if we take the same theory that we take during bowl season, and we pick our winner based upon who we think the more motivated team is going to be, we do like Florida’s chances tonight.
Final prediction:
- Florida - 27
- Oklahoma - 20
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