The sporting world is buzzing after the New York Knicks stormed back from 29 points down to knock off the San Antonio Spurs in game four of the NBA Finals to move within one game of winning it all. The Knicks looked dead in the water, and there were probably more than a few fans around the country who turned the game off and went to bed.
Over the years, Florida hasn’t quite had anything as insane as the comeback the Knicks just had, but they have had moments where they looked dead in the water and managed to walk away with the win.
The following is the most notable win the Gators have had each season since 2015, when it looked like they had next to no chance of pulling it out. All probabilities listed are from the ESPN “Win Probability Meter” from those respective games.
Florida’s most notable wins since 2015
2015 vs. Tennessee
Tennessee marched down the field for a 16-play touchdown drive to go up 27-14 with ten minutes to play. The Gators responded in kind with a 17-play drive of its own to pull within 27-21, but even after forcing a Tennessee punt, the Gators had the ball with just over two minutes to play.
Then 4th and 14 came and Will Grier threw what seemed like a normal 1st down to Antonio Callaway just past midfield.
But Callaway did a U-turn, started running, got a key block, and he kept running 63 yards for the game-winning touchdown.
2016 vs. LSU
Keeping in mind the backdrop of this game was the chipiness between the two programs, following this game getting rescheduled due to Hurricane Matthew, this has held up as one of the more iconic wins and finishes in modern Florida history.
Florida took a 16-10 lead after an Eddy Pinero field goal with just over three minutes left, and that’s when LSU began a 13-play drive down the field.
LSU got to 2nd and goal from the five-yard line, and after a four-yard run down to the one, Florida’s win probability was 24%.
Two stops later from the one-yard line set off a wild celebration as Florida clinched the SEC East title.
2017 vs Kentucky
Deep into the 4th quarter, Florida was trailing 27-14 and had just a 5% chance of keeping its historic win streak against Kentucky alive. Feleipe Franks had been benched for Luke Del Rio, and seemingly nothing was going right for the Gators.
But then Florida got a touchdown to pull within 27-21, got a three-and-out, then marched 13 plays down the field. That’s when the Wildcats just decided they weren’t going to guard Freddie Swain up top, which led to the easiest touchdown pass of Del Rio’s career.
Florida had to sweat out a last-second field goal attempt, but they managed to prevail.
2018 vs Vanderbilt
We wouldn’t necessarily say that Florida was “dead in the water” in this game, but things didn’t look great in the first half. Florida fell behind 21-3 in the second quarter and at one point had just a 15% chance of winning.
Eventually, La’Mical Perine and Jordan Scarlett kicked into gear, and both had over 100 yards rushing as Florida stormed back and won 37-37.
2019 vs Kentucky
The “Kyle Trask Game” was certainly quite the formal debut as Franks went down with a broken leg, forcing a then unproven Trask into the game.
Florida had fallen behind 21-10, but it felt like more. At their lowest point, Florida had just a 7% chance of winning.
But Trask helped lead three touchdown drives as he went 9/13 for 126 yards in relief, and Florida came back to win 29-21.
2020 vs Georgia
Always remembered as the game where Georgia couldn’t defend the wheel route, things didn’t start out great for Florida in this one. Florida fell behind 14-0 within the first five minutes, and it seemed like this would just be another Kirby Smart beatdown.
But Dan Mullen found a weakness that Smart had no answer for, and once Florida got things going, it quickly erased the 11% chance it had of winning and made things easy with a 44-28 win.
2021 vs Samford
One of the wildest games in recent memory in The Swamp, the Gators had just fired defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. But Grantham must have put a hex on Florida on his way out the door, as the Gators' defense had zero answers early on for the Samford offense.
At one point, Florida was down 42-28 late in the 2nd quarter, and the win probability meter had them at just 37%.
Thankfully, Florida pulled it together and spared itself from one of the most embarrassing defeats in program history.
2022 vs Utah
Billy Napier’s debut was about as exciting and dramatic as it comes. In a game that seemingly had everything, Florida had to hang on for dear life at the end as Utah marched right back down the field following an Anthony Richardson TD that put Florida up 29-26.
Utah got down to the six-yard line and was poised to spoil Napier’s debut. Florida’s win probability at this point was 40%, but it felt much lower.
Amari Burney came up with one of the most iconic interceptions in Florida history, and the Gators held on for the win.
2023 vs South Carolina
With the bye week looming, a win here was set to put Florida at 5-2 with an opportunity to have some real momentum to close out the year.
What played out was a Florida defense that couldn’t stop the Gamecocks, and deep into the 4th quarter, the Gators had just a 7% chance of victory. Arlis Bordingham got a TD with four minutes to play to pull within 37-34, and it was Ricky Pearsall getting his final reception of the day en route to a 166-yard day that gave Florida the eventual 41-39 win.
2024 vs Ole Miss
Another game where Florida was never “dead in the water,” but their win probability was as low as 15% in the first half.
What played out was what wound up being the annual Napier Special, where Florida kept scrapping and never let Ole Miss pull away, and eventually Monrell Johnson took a screen pass nine yards for a touchdown to go up 24-17.
Florida’s defense shut down Jaxson Dart and thwarted the playoff hopes of the Rebels in 2024.
2025 vs Mississippi State
When you only win four games in a season, there aren’t many moments to pull from.
But in what would be the final formal play of Billy Napier’s time with the Gators, it looked like Florida was bound to blow it as Mississippi State was driving in field goal range, and Florida at this point had just a 40% chance of winning.
Michai Boireau dropped into coverage for the interception to preserve the win and at least let Napier get out of Gainesville with a win.
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