As the 2026 season approaches and Jon Sumrall gets ready for his maiden voyage with the Gators, there are some games that have received more attention than others. We here at Hail Florida Hail have circled the Auburn game as the one that is Sumrall’s biggest apples-to-apples test of 2026, but there will probably be a good contingency of fans who want to see how Florida navigates the stretch of Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
But if one starts projecting ahead to potential top-25 rankings, there is one game that has flown under the radar that might actually be the biggest litmus test for where Florida is going to finish in 2026.
Florida’s game against Missouri will be a huge litmus test
Josh Pate did a segment this week in which he projected what he thought the Preseason AP Top 25 would look like when it's eventually revealed. Pate believes that Florida will begin the year ranked No. 24.
Best guess at AP Preseason top 25 poll pic.twitter.com/XWHUWWguCv
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) July 1, 2026
What’s interesting about his list is that Missouri comes in at No. 23.
The subplots for this game by themselves are enough to make this a must-see game for Gator fans. For starters, Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz was. rumored candidate for the job in Gainesville before Gator fans revolted at the thought of his smoke-and-mirrors act coming to Florida. There is also the unknown of whether Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy is going to be good to go after he was shot in the leg this offseason.
There is also the subplot of Missouri QB Austin Simmons, who had been a Florida commit under Billy Napier before he moved his classification date up two years and flipped to Ole Miss all at once.
But even without the subplots, Missouri at No. 23 could also represent the floor for the Gators in 2026. Pate’s list has Texas at No. 1, Georgia at No. 7, Ole Miss at No. 9, and Oklahoma at No. 13. If, for argument's sake, those four games are all a loss, the Missouri game represents the difference between an 8-4 season or the potential for something far more disappointing.
Beat Missouri on the road and beat either Ole Miss or Oklahoma, both of which are at home, and there is now a real pathway to 9-3 and the potential to sneak into the playoffs if things break a certain way.
The Missouri game has never been one that Gator fans circle because, frankly, the Tigers are the team Gator fans probably feel the most disconnected from within the SEC. But in 2026, Missouri might just be the biggest litmus test for Sumrall and will highlight whether things are different under his watch.
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