![Florida head coach Jon Sumrall and the team blasts out onto the field before the Orange and Blue game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 11, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2713,h_1526/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01kw4e2n14hs6tt3s5x5.jpg "Florida head coach Jon Sumrall and the team blasts out onto the field before the Orange and Blue game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, April 11, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
One of the things that makes Jon Sumrall’s maiden voyage with Florida so hard to predict is that there is genuinely a massive range of results that could occur, and none of them would be too shocking. The Gators could go 10-2, and there is a real pathway for that to happen. Florida could also go 6-6, and in a way, it would make sense.
There are three games in particular that will seemingly define Florida’s 2026 season, and a recent game-by-game prediction from CBS Sports doesn’t envision those games going well for the Gators.
CBS Sports predicts Florida will go 6-6
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports did predictions for every SEC team, and he has Florida going 6-6. He predicts Florida will beat FAU, Campbell, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Florida State while losing to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas, Georgia, and Kentucky.
Crawford states that:
“The bigger question is whether Florida shows consistent growth throughout the season and establishes a clear identity under its new coach -- that's what Gators fans want to see. Sumrall has a reputation for maximizing talent and building disciplined football teams, but Year 1 rebuilds in this conference are rarely smooth.”
Florida will get tested against Auburn, Missouri, and Kentucky
The game-by-game breakdown from Crawford feels like a Billy Napier special if it beats Oklahoma but also loses to Auburn and Kentucky. It also paints a picture that if Sumrall can raise the floor to a place where Florida is beating the teams they should beat, 9-3 in year one isn’t out of the question.
The three games on this list that Crawford has as losses for Florida and that feel winnable are Auburn, Missouri, and Kentucky. All three of those games are on the road, and one of the other unknowns with Sumrall is how he will personally handle SEC road environments, since he has seldom experienced them as a head coach.
We’ve highlighted the Auburn game before, and it will continue to be circled. That week three matchup is as much of an apples-to-apples comparison as Sumrall is going to get in year one, as the Tigers are coming off a losing season and are also breaking in an American Conference coach.
Likewise, Kentucky is coming off a 5-7 campaign and is also breaking in a new coach. The Wildcats will be an interesting litmus test for hiring a P4 coordinator versus a G6 head coach. One of the things we highlighted during Florida’s coaching search was that the bulk of P4 teams ranked in 2025 were led by a head coach who had previously served as a P4 coordinator.
The Missouri game is probably going to be the most fascinating to evaluate because Eli Drinkwitz was floated as a candidate to be Florida’s head coach, and most Gator fans revolted. The problem with the Tigers over the past couple of years is that they have been built on smoke and mirrors and are frequently exposed the instant they have to play anyone with a pulse.
If Sumrall can win those three road games and win the other six that Crawford projected, 9-3 isn’t that crazy to dream about.
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