Florida’s March Madness outlook may already be decided as SEC Tournament begins

The SEC Tournament won't have major implications on the NCAA Tournament
Florida celebrate Florida head coach Todd Golden’s 100th win and beating Mississippi State 108-77 after an NCAA mens basketball game at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]
Florida celebrate Florida head coach Todd Golden’s 100th win and beating Mississippi State 108-77 after an NCAA mens basketball game at Steven C. O'Connell Center Exactek arena in Gainesville, FL on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The SEC Tournament in men’s basketball is underway, but the Gators won’t have to take the floor until Friday. Florida is hoping it can stay in Nashville all the way through Sunday and return with another piece of hardware in hand.

But while Todd Golden is entering the tournament with full intentions of winning, the reality is that whatever happens in Nashville, barring injuries, will have next to zero effect on what happens to Florida during March Madness.

Todd Golden doesn’t intend to lose in Nashville

Golden met with media members on Tuesday and touched upon the theory that some have that losing right before March Madness can actually be a good thing because it can keep a team on its edge. Golden doesn’t buy the theory:

“I'm not from the school of thought that you should lose before you get to the postseason because you want to remember how that feels. Like I remember how Auburn feels. I remember how Missouri feels, and we don't want to feel that way.”

Losing for the sake of losing isn’t the pathway that Florida needs to take this weekend. Florida is a veteran squad that has been through enough battles and should be able to lean on last year’s national title run to mentally prepare for what is ahead.

But there are also two truths that exist whether or not the Gators win the SEC Tournament this weekend:

  • Florida’s seed for March Madness is more than likely already set in stone.
  • Conference tournament success is not an indicator of NCAA Tournament success.

Unless the Gators get upset in the quarterfinal round on Friday, the selection committee will more than likely already have the Gators slotted by Saturday, whether it’s a one seed or a two seed. Over the past few years, the selection committee has shown minimal interest in moving teams around based on conference tournaments. Florida experienced this in 2024 when it made a run to advance to the SEC Tournament finals and was still relegated to a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, well below what many were projecting.

When Florida won the SEC Tournament and the national title last year, that was actually a rare feat in modern college basketball. Since 2014, just four of the eventual national champions have also won their conference tournament. In addition, of the 44 teams that have made the Final Four since 2014, 22 won their conference tournament, and 22 did not.

So, while generally speaking, the better teams are going to win their respective conference tournaments, it’s not an automatic golden ticket to still be playing in April. 

Still one big thing to play for

The biggest thing Florida is trying to play for this weekend is to still be alive for a piece of SEC history. Since the SEC Tournament was first held in 1979, only two teams in SEC history have done the trifecta of winning the SEC regular season title, the SEC Tournament title, and going on to win the national title:

  • Kentucky in 1998
  • Florida in 2007

That’s it, that’s the list

Florida is nine wins in a row from joining that list. The journey starts on Friday.

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