We are in February, which means March is just around the corner for the Florida Gators as Todd Golden and crew will look to defend their national title for 2025. Even though Florida is 7th in KenPom analytics and 12th in NET, the AP Top 25 has the Gators in 17th due to their six losses on the season.
But the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee tends to have a curveball or two up its sleeve. Whether or not Florida can play its way up to get that curveball might just determine its fate in March.
Bracketology has Florida as a three seed
ESPN once again updated its Bracketology and has Florida slotted in as a No. 3 seed, playing its first and second round games in Tampa. USA Today also has Florida as a No. 3 seed in Tampa, while CBS Sports has Florida as a No. 4 seed. Most other Bracketology efforts floating around also have the Gators between a No 5 and No. 3 seed.
The difference between a No. 5 and No. 4 seed will most likely be semantics, provided Florida winds up in Tampa either way. Being a No. 5 seed does open the door to play an at-large team, while being a No. 4 could slot Florida into an auto qualifier. Right now, Winthrop is a popular choice to face the Gators.
But if Florida can sneak up into a No. 3 seed, the entire bracket feels like it could be wide open for the Gators. ESPN’s current bracket would have the Gators potentially face No. 14 Winthrop, No. 6 Clemson, and No. 2 Illinois in order to reach the Elite Eight. Florida beat Illinois in a preseason scrimmage, and that’s when Florida wasn’t even at full strength.
The CBS bracket that has Florida as a No. 4 seed in Tampa also has the Gators facing Winthrop in the first round and potentially No. 5 St. Louis in the second round. But it is the slight difference of the Sweet 16 matchup, being a No. 4 and being a No. 3, that could decide Florida’s fate.
Being No. 3 means Florida could avoid No. 1 Duke until the Elite Eight, which would be an advantage for Florida, getting to play on short rest versus having a full week. If Florida is a No. 4 seed, Duke’s bigs could be rested to match up with Florida’s bigs.
Of course, this scenario could also play out with current No. 1 seeds Michigan, Arizona, and UConn, all of whom have size that can cause Florida problems.
Either way, Florida has a pathway to cause real damage this March, especially if the matchups fall in its favor.