As Florida gets ready for its 2026 season, the Gators find themselves with familiar projections in computer rankings compared to previous years. This year’s preseason ESPN FPI has Florida ranked 18th, up one spot from last year’s preseason ranking of 19th.
Plenty of fans around the country have cited Florida as a catalyst for why the FPI rankings are skewed towards the SEC. And while the Gators don’t have much defense after a 4-8 season, a lot of people are also overlooking what FPI is meant to measure.
Florida ranked 18th in ESPN FPI
In the most basic terms, the idea of FPI is to measure who would beat whom in a head-to-head matchup. If we go back to last year’s preseason FPI rankings, six of Florida’s eight losses were against teams ranked ahead of Florida (with USF and Kentucky being the only two that were behind the Gators). Likewise, three of Florida’s four wins were against teams they were ahead of in the preseason FPI, with Texas being the one upset the Gators pulled off.
In some ways, Florida’s 2025 season was almost as predicted. For what it’s worth, Florida finished ranked No. 37 in FPI in 2025.
So while being ranked No. 18 may seem like SEC bias, let’s use Florida’s season finale last year against FSU as a litmus test. As we all know, the Gators had Jadan Baugh run wild over the Seminoles, dashing FSU’s hopes of a bowl game. That was the same FSU squad that took 11-3 Virginia to OT and smashed 9-4 Wake Forest. There was also their win over Alabama, though that wound up being more of a fluke than reality.
It’s not crazy to state that if Florida had the schedule Wake Forest had in 2025, the Gators could have gone 9-4 and Billy Napier would still be here.
Likewise, the USF loss that pretty much sealed Napier’s fate didn’t turn out as attrious as it seemed. USF went on to win nine games and finished No. 25 in FPI.
The point of all of this isn’t to pretend that Florida deserves anyone’s pity or even that No. 18 is at all the endgame goal in Gainesville. It’s a reminder that Florida isn’t that far from climbing back up the mountain, and with just a hint of competence from Jon Sumrall, don’t be surprised if the Gators sneak up on people in 2026.
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