Five storylines that explain Florida’s wild ride to a 5-2 start under Jon Sumrall

The first seven weeks of the 2026 season have been some of the wildest and most chaotic in recent Florida Gators history. Florida has experienced the highest highs and lowest lows in their first seven games, but ultimately enters their bye week 5-2. If one had said prior to the season that Florida would enter their bye week 5-2, most would have taken it.

There have been a ton of storylines to follow, but these have been the five biggest storylines to define the start of the season.

5 storylines that have defined the start of Florida’s season

Jadan Baugh’s early Heisman campaign gets derailed

Through the first four games, Baugh rushed for 600 yards and at times looked like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. Florida’s offense as a whole was getting compared to 2019 LSU and it felt like the Gators would score 40 points every game without trying.

But then Missouri asked a simple question:

What if you just loaded the box and dared Florida to do something different?

Unfortunately, the Gators were unable to answer that question against Missouri or South Carolina. It was more a combination of Florida’s offensive line getting exposed, along with the lack of a vertical threat with Vernell Brown III out, than it was anything Baugh was doing wrong.

Baugh is still up to 763 yards rushing after his game against Texas. Considering Florida had gone a decade without a 1,000 yard rusher, he is doing just fine.

Florida’s QB battle debate gets reignited

After an offseason QB battle that had fans split between Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones, that debate had quieted down when Florida started 4-0, and Philo looked like he had answered the questions about his arm strength.

But in the two blowout losses, as noted above, the Gators were challenged to go vertical and couldn’t do it. This led to the calls once again for Jones to start, and that was before it turned out Philo was hurt.

Against Texas, Jones did fine and had some big plays. But the entire thesis of wanting to start Jones was that it would unlock a vertical game, and that didn’t happen.

The real debate going forward is: if Philo is healthy, should he get his job back, or did Jones do enough to take the job?

When will Vernell Brown III return to action?

Online, there has been a segment of Gator fans who have grown restless as to when VB3 is going to return to action. He has been nursing a knee injury ever since the Ole Miss game and has missed the past three games. In his absence, Bailey Stockton has seen increased snaps. While Stockton has been fine in spots, he’s no VB3.

We have no idea whether Brown is actually close to returning or not. Part of what has left fans restless is that Jon Sumrall stated before the South Carolina game that he was “really optimistic” Brown could go.

If VB3 can come back after the bye week against Georgia, it would be a major cog of the offense returning.

Florida’s defense finally looked like a competent unit

Part of the problem is that even when Florida started 4-0, the defense was a mess. Those problems were exacerbated in the back-to-back blowout losses when the offense couldn’t bail them out. Florida tried to paint a picture that they were setting things up for long-term success, but their metrics were among the worst we have ever seen in Gainesville.

Sumrall hinted that while he wasn’t taking over the defense, he was starting to put his thumb on the scale. As a result, Florida was far more aggressive against Texas, and the gambit paid off.

Florida’s inconsistency is hard to explain, but is also the new normal in college football

Part of the angst from Florida’s two losses isn’t just that they lost, but that they looked non-competitive. The Missouri loss was what it was, but the South Carolina loss was downright unexcusable. Had Florida won by the 10+ points Vegas projected them to win by, Shane Beamer would probably be unemployed right now.

But wins over Ole Miss and Texas provide proof of concept that when Florida is on, they are capable of beating anyone in 2026. The challenge for the final five weeks is whether Florida can bottle that and stay consistent. We said prior to the year that we thought Florida would go 9-3. That’s still in play, but 8-4 does feel more realistic right now.

As last week showcased, college football as a whole is inconsistent from week to week, so Florida just needs to rack up wins where it can.

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