Our ongoing "Confidence Meter" series with the Florida Gators takes us to the premier home game of the season against the Texas Longhorns. Both teams will be entering this game off a bye week, and it has the potential to be a massive showdown between DJ Lagway and Arch Manning.
Given how last year's matchup went, what should Florida's level of confidence be this year?
As a reminder, here what the confidence meter was for the first four games:
- LIU - 99.9%
- USF - 90%
- LSU - 45%
- Miami - 60%
Florida takes on Texas in game five of the season
Last year's meltdown against Texas was as non-competitive an afternoon the Gators have had in a long time, regardless of the coach. The backdrop for that game in Austin was the fact that Lagway was out with the hamstring injury he suffered against Georgia, and Aidan Warner had zero answers to move the ball.
The Longhorn offense torched the Florida defense, which has also been dealing with some injuries, and racked up 562 yards of offense.
So part of what made Florida's four-game winning streak remarkable was just how bad they looked against Texas right before getting on a roll.
Confidence Meter - 20%
The problem with having much confidence in this matchup, even though it is at home, is the sheer depth of elite talent the Longhorns have.
Even if Lagway winds up being better than Manning in 2025, the supporting cast surrounding Manning is stronger on paper. Offense vs offense, Florida could make a case it could match Texas, but it is on defense where the Longhorns are loaded.
Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr., Michael Taaffe, Malik Muhammad, and Trey Moore headline a stout group that will eat alive Billy Napier's base offense if he doesn't have something up his sleeve.
Keep in mind that Texas held Ohio State to one of its lowest offensive outputs of the season during the playoffs and had a shot to force overtime until a disastrous goal line sequence.
This game will start out electric, and if Lagway can create magic, then anything is possible, but this will be by far the stiffest test the Gators have all season.