All month long, we have been highlighting our "Confidence Meter" for every game the Gators are slated to play in 2025. Rather than pick a straight-up win or loss, we have been highlighting our level of confidence in Florida to win.
The Gators will end their 2025 regular season as they always do and will face FSU in The Swamp.
As a reminder of what we have predicted this year:
- LIU - 99.9%
- USF - 90%
- LSU - 45%
- Miami - 60%
- Texas - 20%
- Texas A&M - 50%
- Mississippi State - 90%
- Georgia - 55%
- Kentucky - 70%
- Ole Miss - 40%
- Tennessee - 65%
Florida closes against FSU
Last year, the Seminoles came into the 2024 season expecting to prove the haters wrong after getting left out of the 2023 playoffs. Instead, they faceplanted to a 2-10 season that ended with George Gumbs planting a flag at midfield.
Florida wasn't spectacular in Tallahassee last year, but FSU was so lifeless it didn't matter, and eventually the Gators pulled away for an easy win.
Confidence Meter against FSU - 70%
The problem for Mike Norvell is that he has yet to prove he can win with someone other than Jordan Travis as his QB. The other reality is that FSU's roster just isn't that talented, ranked 19th in the 247 Talent Composite for 2025.
Add in the fact that FSU hitched its wagon to QB Tommy Castellanos, who lost his job at Boston College, and one would really have to squint to believe that 2025 is a bounce-back year for FSU.
Really, the only thing that gives this game any kind of pause is if Florida's season goes south enough that Billy Napier gets fired before the end, and even then, the Gators showcased in 2021 that they could still beat Norvell with an interim coach.
Florida should win this game by 14 or more points.