![Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talk before the game before the first half at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday, November 2, 2024. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_3535,h_1988/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01k2m666aegxxa0vcxtv.jpg "Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talk before the game before the first half at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL on Saturday, November 2, 2024. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]")
Our ongoing "Confidence Meter" Florida Gators series takes us to the game in Jacksonville, where cocktails will be consumed, but the powers that be in Duval County don't want to admit it's a party.
After taking Georgia to the brink in 2024, Florida is hoping that if everyone is healthy, they can get their first win over the Bulldogs since 2020.
As a reminder, here are the previous seven games we listed in our Confidence Meter series:
- LIU - 99.9%
- USF - 90%
- LSU - 45%
- Miami - 60%
- Texas - 20%
- Texas A&M - 50%
- Mississippi State - 90%
Florida looks to get over the hump against Georgia
Fair or unfair, Georgia is the bar that Billy Napier has to clear if he is the guy he claims to be. Napier was brought to Gainesville not just to be the hamster on the wheel the previous three coaches were, he was brought in to legit compete against the titans of college football.
Last year, Florida gave Georgia everything the Bulldogs could handle, and if it wasn't for DJ Lagway going down with a hamstring injury, there is a real pathway the Gators could have pulled it out.
Unfortunately, once Aidan Warner came into the game, the offense stalled out, and eventually the Gator defense gassed out.
Confidence Meter against Georgia - 55%
Even though they won the SEC title in 2024, there was a feeling that the Bulldogs were starting to come back to the pack last year. They barely got past Kentucky, lost to Alabama, didn't exactly blow out Mississippi State, had to claw back against Florida, lost to a flawed Ole Miss squad, and had to survive eight overtimes against Georgia Tech before getting bounced in the playoffs against Notre Dame.
The massive question mark surrounding Georgia is at QB. Gone is Carson Beck, and in is Gunner Stockton. The former four-star QB wasn't "bad" last year, but he wasn't great and was a bit of a check-down merchant.
Last year, Stockton had an ADOT (average depth of target, AKA how far down the field is the receiver when he throws it) of 7.5 yards. That was 192nd out of the 218 QB nationally with at least 50 attempts.
Even Aidan Warner at least attempted to throw the ball down the field and had a better ADOT than Stockton.
If Lagway is healthy in this game, and that is a big if, Florida should have the QB advantage in this game. While Georgia probably has better depth in other areas, this game could be Lagway's to shine.