Computer models believe Florida’s breakthrough season is within reach

Prior to the season, it felt like most publications were hesitant to oversell the Gators. Most predictions seemed to range from 8-4 down to 6-6 for Jon Sumrall’s debut season in Gainesville.

But in our own preseason predictions, we dared to dream that a 9-3 season was possible for Florida. And current computer models seem to agree it might not be that crazy for Florida to make a push towards the playoffs in 2026.

ESPN’s FPI thinks Florida could go 9-3 in 2026

The ESPN FPI metric is a topic of debate among college football fans, as fans on the outside tend to dismiss its accuracy. We would argue that it tends to be closer to reality than some want to admit.

After Week One, the FPI metric was updated, and Florida is now considered a favorite in all but three games this season.

What’s interesting, though it makes sense, is that Florida’s total predicted wins for 2026 is 7.2. The Gators are given a slight edge against Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and South Carolina. On the flip side, Florida is a slight underdog against Oklahoma. So even then, if Florida goes 3-2 during that slate, loses to Texas and Georgia, and beats Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and FSU, the Gators would finish 8-4.

For what it’s worth, we also ran our own calculations that factor in FPI, Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings (which has Florida at No. 13), and the 247 Talent Composite, and this is what the highly unofficial Hail Florida Hail algorithm predicts moving forward:

• Vs. Campbell — Florida 52–7
• At Auburn — Florida 24–23
• Vs. Ole Miss — Florida 26–25
• At Missouri — Florida 24–22
• Vs. South Carolina — Florida 25–21
• At Texas — Texas 31–17
• Vs. Georgia — Georgia 28–20
• Vs. Oklahoma — Oklahoma 23–22
• At Kentucky — Florida 26–20
• Vs. Vanderbilt — Florida 31–21
• At Florida State — Florida 27–20

Translation:

Florida has a shot at a special season, but the margins are going to be tight, and it is going to force Florida to win a number of coin-flip games. Pure math would tell you that Florida isn’t actually going to win all of those coin flips.

But until we see otherwise, it’s nice to dream this time of year, and we are going to keep dreaming that 9-3 and beyond is a possibility until we find out otherwise.

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