Last year, Florida was viewed as a potential dark-horse contender to make the playoffs. The hope of having DJ Lagway for the entire season, combined with the momentum from the winning streak to end the 2024 season, had a lot of people buying what Billy Napier was selling.
We don’t need to remind anyone what played out instead in 2025. But those scars from 2025 still linger, and it makes Florida cautious not to get fooled again in 2026, even when some are saying Florida could actually make a playoff run.
The crazy part, however, is that a playoff run for Florida might not actually be the most insane prediction one could make.
CBS Sports doesn’t rule out a playoff appearance for Florida in 2026
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports ran a piece titled “Ready to get hurt again: Five college football teams Tom Fornelli can't quit going into 2026.” The idea of the piece was to look at teams he felt would smash their preseason win total predictions Vegas handed out.
Florida is predicted by Vegas to win 7.5 games, but Fornelli sees a ceiling far higher than that:
“How high am I on the Florida Gators? Well, current win totals have the Gators pegged at 7.5 right now, but when I look at this team, I don't just see a squad that can get to 8-4. I see a team that could reach the College Football Playoff.
This is a talented team that made what I consider a massive upgrade to its coaching staff over the offseason. Jon Sumrall wasn't the first choice of many Gators fans, but he was a good one.”
Fornelli isn’t wrong about one thing:
Florida has a talented roster. It had a talented roster during the Billy Napier Era and sent more than its fair share of players to the NFL. We don’t need to rehash the failures of Napier, but part of why Gator fans were so adamant for a coaching change is that any improvement to the coaching staff could unlock the cache of talent in Gainesville.
After all, Florida had a roster good enough to pull off wins over the likes of Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and take Georgia to the brink in back-to-back seasons in spite of Napier.
But one of the other potential hidden factors that could swing Florida’s way is that its 2026 schedule might not be as daunting as one may think. As it stands right now, only two teams on Florida’s 2026 schedule have a win projection higher than Florida’s 7.5 (Georgia and Texas). If Vanderbilt and Ole Miss take any kind of step back this year, and Florida can knock off Oklahoma at home, Florida can rack up wins in a heartbeat.
Quite frankly, if Florida solves the offensive line woes they showcased during the spring game, and that is a massive if that has to get solved this offseason, it’s not completely insane to float the idea of Florida winning 10 games in 2026.
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