Florida Football: Missouri was thought to be an easier game. Oops.

Over the overseason, when one looked at the schedule for Florida football, it was known that the Gators had a rough slate of games. Five were against top 15 opponents, three were viewed as a coin flip, while the remaining four were seen as must-win games for the Gators to have any chance at a solid season.

Billy Napier and crew won the first three must-win games: McNeese State, UNC Charlotte, and Vanderbilt.

The fourth must-win game from the preseason predictions is this Saturday against Missouri, and well, let’s just say these aren’t the Tigers we expected from the offseason.

Florida Football: Kitty cat is all grown up

Think of every piece of literature written last season and all offseason about how terrible Florida football was in 2022.

Now imagine you are a team that lost to that terrible team 24-17. While the final scoreline was close, the Gators were never in danger of losing to Missouri last season.

So, coming into 2023, there was little reason to believe that Missouri was going to be any good, and the only reason there was to think Saturday’s game would be close was because it was sandwiched between LSU and FSU and had a prime “trap game” label written all over it.’

One could argue it’s still a trap game, just in the other direction.

Missouri is 8-2 this season and is now ranked 9th in the CFP rankings.

They have an offense that is 26th in points per play, 17th in yards per play, and 8th in yards per passing attempt. The defense is a bit more vulnerable but still ranks 53rd in yards per play and 49th in points per play.

But none of it was foreseen before the season.

Since arriving in Missouri after a 12-1 season with App State, head coach Eli Drinkwitz has been the definition of mid. The Tigers were 5-5 in 2020, 6-7 in 2021, and 6-7 in 2022. Their recruiting classes have made Dan Mullen look like a recruiting savant. They picked up eight transfers from the portal in the offseason, but 247 ranked Missouri as having the 41st-best transfer portal class.

And yet, Missouri enters Saturday’s matchup as the 11.5-point favorite.

One could argue that Florida sitting at 5-5 isn’t shocking, and the season has played out mostly as expected. Nick de la Torre from On3 is 10-0 from his preseason projections on which games Florida football would win or lose.

But desperately needing a win to gain bowl eligibility and possibly keep intact their recruiting class, no one in the preseason could have foretold that while the Gators would be 5-5, they would need a win over a Missouri squad ranked 9th in the country to get the sixth win.