Florida football: Ways the Gators can predict Kentucky’s Will Levis

For three decades, the annual matchup between the Florida Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats was a foregone conclusion. The only point of real interest was if Florida football could cover the spread.

Those days are gone, at least for now, and the Wildcats are coming to Gainesville with a firm mission and belief they can win.

Much of that hope falls on the shoulders of Kentucky star QB Will Levis. While Kentucky may be wounded entering The Swamp on Saturday, Levis will be looking to rely on his legs and a couple of key playmakers to confuse the Gators’ defense.

Florida can slow down the Kentucky offense, but it will need to be disciplined to do so.

Florida football: Will Levis and friends provide a challenge to the Gators

Levis is currently ranked fifth on Mel Kiper’s NFL QB prospects for the 2023 draft. Listed at 6-3, 232 pounds, Levis has a build that is only slightly smaller than Florida QB Anthony Richardson.

After playing two seasons at Penn State in mostly backup duty, Levis transferred to Kentucky for the 2021 season and burst onto the national scene. 2,827 yards passing and 24 passing TDs. He also ran for 376 yards and nine rushing TDs.

As his stats suggest, Levis is not a run-first QB, but he will run as needed. Last season Levis typically stayed in the pocket and only looked to scramble as a last resort. Kentucky did utilize draw plays when given a favorable look. Levis also utilized the read-option a few times a game, but it was not the main staple of Kentucky’s offense.

Levis has an accurate arm and had a completion percentage of 66%. Kentucky didn’t opt for a ton of deep shots last year, instead opting for shorter throws that allowed their wide receivers catch-and-run opportunities.

It’s not to say that Levis doesn’t have a strong arm. Part of his effectiveness is the zip he can put on the ball. But part of the reason Kentucky didn’t take a ton of deep shots last year despite the strong arm of Levis, was his deep throws tended to be late and a good chunk of his 13 interceptions last year were from safeties down the field.

Florida football: Wounded Wildcats at running back

One of the big offseason storylines for Kentucky has been the status of star running back Chris Rodriguez. Last year Rodriguez tore the Gators up with 99 yards rushing and one TD.

Rodriguez was charged with DUI in May and Kentucky has opted to suspend the senior indefinitely. It is noteworthy though that Kentucky hasn’t formally announced the length of the suspension and nothing is stopping Kentucky from having Rodriguez suit up on Saturday.

Part of what could influence head coach Mark Stoops’s decision is that Ramon Jefferson and JuTahn McClain also picked up injuries.

This leaves Kavosiey Smoke as the only known running back on Kentucky’s depth chart. Smoke is in his 5th year at Kentucky and is capable of popping a big play. His career yards per attempt average is 6.9.

But Smoke has never been trusted as the feature back in five years and listed at 5-9, 209 pounds, his skill set is best utilized in a “Thunder and lightning” type running back rotation. Without Rodriguez, Smoke is missing the “thunder” portion of the rotation.

Florida football: Pathway to stop Kentucky

While Kentucky is wounded at running back, it still has a very dangerous receiver in Tayvion Robinson. At 5-11, 187 pounds, Robinson has a very similar build and style to former Gator Kadarius Toney. Robinson can wreak havoc if he is allowed to catch the ball in space.

Kentucky loves to utilize pre-snap motion, but it is also one of its biggest tells as to where the play is going.

For starters, the man Kentucky puts in motion is seldom the guy that is going to get the ball. Sometimes he simply acts as an extra blocker for a run play. If it is a passing play though, the man in motion is usually meant to drag a defender with him pre-snap and open up a throwing lane to the guy he started next to.

Kentucky utilized a very similar offense against Miami (OH) that they used most of last season. Against the Redhawks, Kentucky used some form of motion pre-snap on 24 different offensive plays.

20 of those plays were either runs up the middle, or designed to be a run or pass in the direction that the guy in motion came from (in other words if the man in motion went from left to right, the play itself went to the left).

Only four times did Kentucky put a man in motion and have the play go in the direction the man in motion was going.

Is it probably that Kentucky is saving some new concepts for Florida? Sure.

But Kentucky might be down to one running back of note, and not one that has been trusted with a heavy workload. They have a dangerous receiver in Robinson, but not a QB that can be trusted to throw a deep ball to him. If Rodriguez does play, it will simplify Kentucky’s play calling because he can create yards for himself.

What Florida needs to key on is if Kentucky lines up someone else next to Robinson and sends that guy in motion to leave Robinson one-on-one, Florida needs to be on high alert for some type of slant route.

Florida could steal an interception by following the man in motion, then have Brenton Cox (if he is on that side) drop into the throwing lane and anticipate that Levis will not anticipate Cox being in the lane.

The Gators should have favorable personnel matchups in this game. Florida football is strong at cornerback and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Gators use more nickel and dime formations than a 3-4 given that Kentucky doesn’t have a bruising running back if Rodriguez doesn’t play.

Kentucky’s offensive line looked vulnerable against Miami (OH) and there should be opportunities for Florida football to get home and sack Levis, especially if they can take away his first read (aka Robinson).

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