Florida football: Gators scouting report vs. Vanderbilt

Florida football has beaten Vanderbilt 27 times in their last 28 meetings. What does Florida need to do to make it 28 out of 29?

Last week, Florida football failed to get that one big run, which had become a reliable and helpful feature of its more recent victories. Lamical Perine only accrued 31 rushing yards, although he was able to display his surprising shiftiness to make some impressive escapes from the backfield.

While limited by a rebuilding offensive line, Perine can put his skill set on display against a much weaker Vanderbilt front seven that ranks 109th in opposing YPC.

Match-up wise, Florida’s best hope is still in its passing game. In Vanderbilt, Florida football has a favorable opponent as the Commodores rank 119th in opposing passer rating.

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Some recent disasters for Vanderbilt’s secondary include a 34-point drubbing that it incurred against UNLV, whose freshman quarterback enjoying his strongest performance of the season in terms of passer rating.

As another example, Purdue’s Elijah Sindelar produced 509 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-point Purdue effort.

While Florida’s wide receivers did not flex their depth against Georgia, the Bulldogs’ stacked and talented secondary deserves a lot of credit. Against Vanderbilt, Florida football wide receivers enjoy a match-up scenario in which they can return to prior levels of productivity.

Freddie Swain is still lethal because of his explosiveness. With opponents cueing in on Kadarius Toney, Swain remains an underrated option. Kyle Pitts is a threat while lining up in multiple spots. It would be great if head coach Dan Mullen can figure out how to help Pitts succeed even almost as much in the second half as he often succeeds in the first half. Against LSU and Georgia, Pitts’ first- and second-half discrepancy in production was conspicuous.

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt provides a balanced offense as evident in play formation. The Gators employed a bear formation that worked against the run last week and they can lean on this against Vanderbilt, too. While Florida was still gashed by D’Andre Swift, it has stronger recourse when it really needs a third-and-short stop.

If Florida football can also succeed in stopping the run on early downs, it can create more third-and-longs for the likes of Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard to make more of an impact in the backfield than they did in their sackless return from a frustrating sort of ankle injury against Georgia.

My Bet

Losing to Georgia dealt a crucial blow to Florida’s playoff and SEC East hopes at the same time. It will be tough to recover emotionally from that blow. Even besides that blow, after playing their hated rival, the Gators will struggle to regain focus for an early kickoff against a vastly inferior opponent that they handle every year.

There’s also some relevant precedent. Last year, after the LSU game, Florida lost the first half to Vanderbilt. After facing Georgia, Florida football lost by 21 points to Missouri.

Given the scenario and recent history, I expect a similar let-down. Florida can then regroup at halftime.

My bet is: Vanderbilt First-Half +16.5

Betting Record: 7-2