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Why eight wins would matter in Jon Sumrall’s first season at Florida

For Jon Sumrall to have long term success at Florida, he needs to get to eight wins this season
ByBenjamin Henderson
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Florida Head Coach Jon Sumrall talks with Oklahoma coaching staff during first half of an NCAA football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 7, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]
Florida Head Coach Jon Sumrall talks with Oklahoma coaching staff during first half of an NCAA football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 7, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

We stated prior to the season that the acceptable floor for Jon Sumrall’s inaugural run at Florida was going to be 8-4. Our main thesis was that Florida’s roster wasn’t so untalented, and that its schedule had some soft-spot opportunities, that it was unfair to set that as the bar if Sumrall is who he claims he is.

Sitting at 5-4, the Gators will need to win out to reach that mark.

Some may think that first-year results don’t really matter and there are some anecdotal examples that back that up, but the general data suggests that if Sumrall is going to make it as Florida’s coach in the long run, he needs to find a way to hit that 8-4 mark in 2026.

Jon Sumrall is hoping to close out 2026 to prove he is the man for Florida

We looked at every coach hired to a Power Four program ahead of the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons. In total, there were 35 coaches we looked at, including The Man in the Black Polo.

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We looked at their win totals from their debut season and then compared them to their average win totals since then (not counting this year, since this year is still in progress).

The positive news is that, on average, coaches did see a win total bump after year one. Of the 35 coaches we looked at, the average was one extra win per season compared to their debut year.

But there is a clear barrier for coaches who do not reach at least eight wins in their debut season as to whether or not they build their respective programs up. Of the 20 coaches who did not win at least eight games in their debut year between 2022 and 2024, only seven of them have an average of eight wins or more since. And of that group, Mario Cristobal at Miami is the only coach to have averaged 10 wins or more per season since their debut year.

That contrasts with the 15 coaches who won at least eight games in their debut season. Of that group, 12 of them have maintained an average of at least eight wins since. Brian Kelly is the one weird caveat from that group who maintained at least an eight-win average and was still fired.

For Sumrall, these final three regular-season games will tell a lot about his long-term outlook at Florida. 

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