![Florida head coach Billy Napier greets fans during gator walk before an NCAA football game against Texas in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 4, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2535,h_1425/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01k72m30gzx6y6x54018.jpg "Florida head coach Billy Napier greets fans during gator walk before an NCAA football game against Texas in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, October 4, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
A new report from On3 indicates that Billy Napier's road to saving his job is thin and would require a "miracle" even more grand than what he pulled off last season. Even after the win over Texas, the Gators are 2-3 on the season and 21-22 overall in the Billy Napier Era.
But as long as Napier has a job, he still has a chance and thus it begs the question whether or not Napier has any chance of coming back in 2026 or if we are all just wasting our time.
Billy Napier's pathway back is incredibly thin
Let the record show, we here at Hail Florida Hail have long since been off the Billy Napier Train, and the win on Saturday against Texas didn't change our mind, especially since we actually predicted a Florida win.
But we are not Scott Stricklin, and unfortunately, we don't get a say, so we have to think like Stricklin to figure out if Napier has any shot of returning in 2026.
It starts this Saturday against Texas A&M. A loss drops Florida to 2-4, and even a win over Mississippi State would require Florida to find three wins against Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and FSU just to get bowl eligible.
A win over Texas A&M, and assuming a win over Mississippi State, all of a sudden creates the possibility of a crazy stretch run coming out of the bye week for the craziest turnaround in college football history.
Prior to the season, most would have believed 8-4 was good enough to save Napier. Again, not what we would advocate, but it would appease the ivory tower in Gainesville.
So if Florida goes into the bye week 4-3 and goes 3-2 down the stretch to finish 7-5, the same mark he hit last season, we just have this feeling the powers that be will go:
"Well, he didn't have DJ Lagway all offseason, he didn't have Dallas Wilson the first four games, he didn't have Caleb Banks, and he was a couple plays away from beating USF, LSU, and Miami.
That's good enough for us to run it back."
This is a foolish way of thinking, and Napier's flaws are well documented at this point.
But it seems the administration is determined to find a way to justify keeping Napier as long as they can, while the rest of us just smile and nod.
Smile and nod.