What is Florida's make or break game in 2025?

Looking at the 2025 schedule for Florida Football, some games are absolute must-win games simply because the opponent is so bad (looking at you, LIU and Mississippi State). Other games are going to be difficult, but they won't derail the season should Florida come up short (namely, Texas and, you could argue, Georgia).

But somewhere in the middle are three games that are going to be the definition of Florida's season and will ultimately tell the tale of whether or not we consider 2025 a success for the Gators.

LSU is an early litmus test for the Florida Gators

Florida opens at home against Long Island and USF. The Bulls will probably be more fiery than we want to admit, but those are both must-win games for Florida that won't move the needle, even if the Gators win both by 50 points.

It's the September 13 trip to Baton Rouge that will answer a ton of questions about the 2025 Gators.

Florida beat LSU last year to essentially salvage the season, but if the goal is to make a run at the playoffs and/or go 9-3 at worst, LSU is going to be a team Florida simply has to beat.

Especially when one considers Billy Napier's decision not to televise the spring game when LSU is the only team in the SEC that would have potentially gained anything from it, on top of Jack Pyburn and Ja'Keem Jackson transferring to LSU, this game is going to be a pressure cooker.

Revenge against Miami is a must

If you gave Gator fans the choice of only beating LSU or only beating Miami, most Florida fans would probably choose Miami after the way last year went down.

Carson Beck is in for Cam Ward and beating Miami probably won't move the needle in the way beating LSU would, but the 41-17 beating last year undid an entire offseason of positive narratives that Napier has still struggled to recover from.

While we are at it, Texas A&M is the flash point

When Florida lost to Miami last year, we called Napier a "Snake oil salesman who better find oil soon."

After the loss to Texas A&M, we outright called for him to be fired.

So while the Aggies enter 2025 as an intriguing team that is probably solid but not elite, they also fall on the schedule at a point in the season that could define a ton of narratives.

Let's pretend Florida loses to LSU, beats Miami, and then loses to Texas. The Gators would be 3-2 going on the road to College Station. A win would put Florida at 4-2 with Mississippi State the following week, and Florida could be 5-2 heading into the bye week.

A loss would drop Florida to 3-3, 0-3 in SEC play, and whatever Napier defenders still remain at that point would need to wave the white flag.

It's for that reason, we are going to argue that Texas A&M is the make or break game of the 2025 season.