![New UF head football coach Jon Sumrall speaks during a press conference at the James W. “Bill” Heavener Football Training Center in Gainesville, FL on Monday, December 1, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_2536,h_1426/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/213/01kfp0d183kw68z2hfa5.jpg "New UF head football coach Jon Sumrall speaks during a press conference at the James W. “Bill” Heavener Football Training Center in Gainesville, FL on Monday, December 1, 2025. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
Prior to the 2025 season, it was repeatedly noted that Florida would face a tough schedule that could hinder its path to the playoffs. To that, Billy Napier responded with “Spot the ball” and yeah....
In 2026, Florida is not going to be viewed as a playoff contender from the outset. But if things break right for Jon Sumrall and company, a couple of tweaks to the playoffs themselves could make life more difficult for Florida to get in.
CFP field to stay at 12 teams in 2026
The biggest news of the day on Friday is that the playoff field will remain at 12 teams in 2026. This is amid the Big Ten wanting to expand to 24 teams, while everyone else is pushing for 16 teams.
But under the fine print are a couple of details that could make life more difficult for Florida should they have a great year and wind up on the bubble. The first has been noted before, but it was reconfirmed that if Notre Dame finishes among the top 12, it will get an automatic bid. The Irish finished ranked No. 11 in the final CFP poll, but were bumped out of the field due to Tulane and James Madison being the 4th and 5th best-ranked conference champions.
Under this setup, Notre Dame would have bumped out No. 10 Miami for the final at-large spot in the playoffs.
The other complication is that the rules are being rewritten to ensure that all four Power Four conferences get an automatic bid in addition to the top Group of Six champion. This small tweak would have knocked James Madison out this season and would have had unranked Duke in the playoffs.
BREAKING: The College Football Playoff is expected to remain at 12 teams next season, @Clowfb, @Brett_McMurphy & @PeteNakos report🏆https://t.co/eIUry1lEXX pic.twitter.com/fFhKaQWLyx
— On3 (@On3) January 23, 2026
So what does this have to do with Florida?
Let’s just imagine a world where Florida goes 10-2 in 2026 and finds itself in the same spot Miami was this year. There is a world now where a team could finish No. 9 and still get bumped out of the playoffs. As a hypothetical, you could have:
- No. 9 - Florida
- No. 10 - Texas Tech as Big 12 Champ
- No. 11 - Michigan
- No. 12 - Notre Dame
- No 20 - Duke as ACC Champ
- No. 25 - Tulane as G6 Champ
Under the 2025 setup, Texas Tech, Duke, and Tulane still get moved up, but Florida is still safe. Under the 2026 model, Texas Tech, Duke, Tulane, and Notre Dame would all get moved ahead of Florida.
Also, because the ACC and Big 12 are guaranteed a slot now, there are scenarios one could conjure up where two Group of Six teams have a massive year, and things get screwed up. For example:
No. 1 - SEC Champ
No. 2 - Big 10 Champ
No. 3 - SEC team
No. 4 - Big 10 team
No. 5 - Texas Tech, but not as Big 12 champ
No. 6 - Miami, but not as ACC champ
No. 7 - Boise State
No. 8 - Undefeated AAC Champ
No. 9 - Random SEC team
No. 10 - Florida
No. 11 - Random Big Ten team
No. 12 - Notre Dame
No. 15 - Big 12 Champ in an upset
No. 20 - ACC Champ in an upset
In this scenario in 2025, the Big 12 champ in an upset is the last team to get moved up as the 5th-ranked conference champ, as the two G6 teams would both count towards the auto bids, but Florida would have still been in.
But in 2026, since the Big 12, ACC, and Notre Dame get auto bids, they would all jump Florida, and the Gators would be out.
Even if it’s not Florida, someone is going to get screwed over by these tweaks, all because Notre Dame is too good to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.