Heading into Selection Monday, Florida Baseball knew they were not going to host a Regional round. Despite a late charge and being ranked 15th in RPI, the 1-11 start in SEC play was too much to overcome.
Given that Florida also knew they weren't going to be sent to any of the other SEC Regional hosts, there were only a handful of places the Gators could get sent. As it played out, Florida is off to Conway, SC and will have to contend with No. 13 national seed Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, and Fairfield.
Florida Gators have a manageable region
Based on RPI, Coastal Carolina probably feels like they were unfairly seeded. The Chanticleers are ranked 8th in RPI and have two wins over Clemson this year, as well as a win over the No. 16 national seed Southern Miss.
And while they are entering this tournament on an 18-game winning streak, the truth is that they also haven't been battle-tested over the last month. Outside of Clemson and Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina didn't play anyone with an RPI better than 99 during that winning streak.
Combined with blowout losses to Charleston, Alabama, and Wake Forest, the Chanticleers are as reasonable as an opponent Florida could have asked for.
Playing East Carolina in the opener is huge too
When one thinks of the realistic pathway Florida has to take in order to get out of the Conway Regional, they have to save Liam Peterson and Aidan King for games two and three for potential games against Coastal Carolina.
The reality is that Florida more than likely doesn't have the depth of arms to get out if they are forced to play five games. One could even argue they don't have the depth of arms to make it through four games.
So if the Gators are trying to thread the needle to go 3-0, they will need to throw Pierce Coppola in the opening game and hope they can get four or more innings out of him and bullpen their way through the rest of the game.
This is where opening against East Carolina is huge. The Pirates would not have made the NCAA Tournament if they didn't go on a huge run in the AAC Tournament to emerge as conference champs. ECU was 13-14 in conference play and had an RPI north of 80 before the AAC Tournament.
Compared to the other three seeds Florida could have been slotted into, this is a manageable matchup.
Now, will Kevin O'Sullivan actually do this? The common belief is that Florida is going to stick with Peterson in the opening game, throw King in game two, and worry about game three when game three arrives.
But there is precedent for Florida to switch things up. Back in 2023 Florida threw Jac Caglianone in the opening game even though he was the Sunday starter.
Super Regionals would be with someone familiar
If Florida can emerge from Conway, they slot into the winner of the Auburn Regional. The Tigers have had a bit of a renaissance this season and are the No. 4 overall seed. Auburn has been consistent all season long, but they have some notable bad losses on their resume and lost three of their last four games to close out the regular season.
The last time Florida and Auburn matched up in Super Regionals, Auburn had a ball doink off their glove to send Florida to Omaha.
Their region is manageable, but it won't be easy. NC State is the two seed in that region and is a program that knows how to navigate the NCAA Tournament.
Florida and NC State faced off last year in Omaha.
The third seed in that region is Stetson, who Florida beat twice this season. The Hatters made it to the NCAA Tournament with a bit of controversy as the ASun Tournament couldn't be finished and Stetson was declared the conference champ and given the automatic bid over Florida Gulf Coast.