Three end of season scenarios for Florida Football and how they impact the future
Last season Florida Football was 5-2 entering their bye week and the vibes in Gainesville were pretty good. Five games later and we here at Hail Florida Hail started to ask some real questions about the state of the program and whether Billy Napier would be able to fix them.
This year, Florida is 4-3, with wins over Samford, Mississippi State, UCF, and Kentucky, none of whom have winning records, but there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel that could get Napier a fourth-year in Gainesville.
It's with that in mind that we are going to look at the three possible end-of-season scenarios that could play out for Florida and how they would impact the future of the program.
Door 1: 5-0 or 4-1
Here is a wild but true statement:
Florida has technically not been eliminated from the playoffs.
Coming into the season, the mark for most teams to keep dancing come December was 10-2, but as was written 651 times in the offseason, the Gators have a schedule that could draw them into consideration if they go 9-3.
Suppose Florida has wins over Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss, with their only losses to Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee. In that case, we have a precedent from the committee that the Gators could leapfrog some 10-2 squads.
No, we are not actively predicting this will happen. Even 4-1 would require the Gators to beat either Georgia or Texas and also beat both LSU and Ole Miss.
And no, we are not predicting that will happen either.
But if somehow, someway, this scenario plays out, then a lot of us will be scratching our heads about how exactly Florida pulled off one of the greatest seasons around in modern history, and Old Takes Exposed will have an ocean of content to work with.
Door 2: 3-2 or 2-3
As much as we don't think Billy Napier should be the head coach of the Gators moving forward, we also had a hunch coming into the season that even a 6-6 campaign could keep him around, given the difficulty of their schedule.
Finishing the year 7-5 would mean beating two of Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss, along with beating FSU. Getting to 6-6 means Florida beats one of those first four and FSU.
Mind you, we had stated prior to the year as well that anything short of 8-4 means Napier doesn't have Florida where they need to be by year three of his tenure.
But we are not Florida boosters or Florida's administration and the tea leaves seem to indicate Scott Stricklin and crew are dragging their feet as long as possible before having to make a move. And if Florida makes a bowl game, it just feels like that would be enough to pacify the decision-makers from dropping the guillotine on the Napier Era.
Door 3: 1-4 or 0-5
ESPN's FPI metric actually has Florida as the 22nd-best team in the country. That same metric also shows Florida as the underdogs in their next four games before having a 74% chance of beating FSU.
Add all the percentages up, and ESPN predicts an additional 1.7 wins for the Gators in 2024.
Obviously, one can't have 0.7 wins, and the next best chance they give Florida is a 41% chance against LSU.
So if the 1.7 wins don't round up and Florida loses four straight and beats FSU to finish 5-7, it would be malpractice by Florida's administration not to turn into Chris Stapleton and tell Napier, "You should probably leave."